China Begins Military Drills Around Taiwan

    Image copyright: AFP [via BBC News]

    The Spin


    Anti-China narrative

    As a global champion of democracy and human rights, it's only right that the US should support Taiwan and its democratic government. This response to Pelosi's visit to the island is an outlandish escalation on China's part.


    Pro-China narrative

    Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was an intentional provocation that has raised tensions across the Strait as well as in Southeast Asia. The US is clearly conspiring to violate China's sovereignty under the pretense of "democracy," and has forced China to respond with a show of strength.


    Narrative C

    While China's military escalation is concerning, neither the US nor Beijing have the appetite to escalate to war. This expected response is intended to be a show of potential strength rather than lead to a declaration of war.


    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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