Starmer Announces Abbott Can Stand as Labour Candidate
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has confirmed that Diane Abbott, the UK's first female Black member of parliament, is "free" to stand as a party candidate following allegations she had been banned from seeking reelection in Hackney North and Stoke Newington.
The Times had reported on Tuesday that Abbott, who has served in Parliament for 37 years, was not to be endorsed as a candidate by Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC) despite having the party whip restored.
In April 2023, the lawmaker was suspended for claiming that Jewish, Traveller, and Irish communities did not experience racism, but rather prejudice. Abbott later withdrew her comments.
Narrative A
Starmer's purge of the party's left wing is outrageous and unacceptable. While Abbott has made mistakes and may not see eye to eye on policy with Starmer, Labour's treatment towards one of its most historic and respected figures has been neither fair nor equal to the punishment given to numerous white men within the party. Labour has alienated the entirety of its progressive base, who have now been left without a major political party willing to fight for a better future.
Narrative B
While currently perceived as an unnecessary and self-induced political disaster, Starmer has pulled the trigger on a tough but necessary decision in order for his party to win the general election. Irrespective of Abbott's fate, Starmer's intent is a clear signal of Labour's future direction that will likely reassure the wider voting population in the long term.
Narrative C
Abbott should not be forgiven for her antisemitic comments, and Labour's botched internal investigation highlights the party's complete and utter incompetence. While unlikely to affect the general election outcome, Starmer's weakness and Labour's moral hypocrisy should come as no surprise to the British public.
Nerd narrative
There is a 99% chance that Labour will have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Mexico: Another Mayoral Candidate Shot Dead
Alfredo Cabrera, who was running for mayor in the town of Coyuca de Benítez, was gunned down ahead of his closing campaign rally in the Mexican state of Guerrero.
The attack at point-blank range on Wednesday reportedly unfolded as Cabrera, the candidate for the opposition coalition, was preparing to address about 300 supporters.
Cabrera was at least the 23rd candidate running for local office to be murdered since September, with some non-governmental organizations reporting an even higher toll.
Narrative A
It has become quite common in Mexico for criminal organizations to engage in pre-election violence at the municipal level as influence over local power is crucial to their business and much easier to hold than at a state or federal level. This was their latest — but certainly not their last — attempt to get their preferred candidate elected.
Narrative B
While there is indeed a correlation between gang violence and political violence in some Mexican states, this oversimplification fails to explain how political violence can be high despite relatively low levels of gang-related crimes. Power dynamics and local-level disputes also contribute to this worrisome trend.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that the US will deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Thousands Rally in New Zealand to Protest Cuts in Māori Funding
Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets on Thursday across New Zealand to express their opposition to what they allege are efforts from the center-right coalition government to dismantle Māori rights.
In the wake of this mass anti-government protest, the Māori Party issued a declaration of political independence to assert Māori sovereignty and start the process of establishing a Māori parliament.
This comes as Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivered the Budget 2024 on Thursday, with reduced funding for Māori programs and the abolishment of the Māori Health Authority.
Narrative A
With the Budget 2024, the coalition government has made good on its electoral promise to give New Zealanders their first tax cuts in 14 years as they endure a prolonged cost-of-living crisis, benefitting low and middle-income households and families with young children the most. Māori or not, everyone will be in a better position now.
Narrative B
While tax cuts included in this year's budget do benefit white New Zealanders, this isn't true for the Māori people as the package targets employed people. As public departments will have to cut their costs, thousands of public service staff will lose their jobs — and that's particularly harmful to the Māori.
Trump Found Guilty on All Counts in Hush Money Trial
A New York jury on Thursday found former Pres. Donald Trump guilty on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to hide hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
The verdict wraps up a weeks-long trial that included testimony from former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker and others involved in the "catch-and-kill" scheme ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
The presumptive GOP presidential nominee is set to be sentenced on July 11 — four days before the Republican National Convention kicks off. He faces penalties from a fine to four years in jail on each count.
Anti-Trump narrative
This verdict shows that no one, not even a former president, is above the rule of law in America. Furthermore, it serves as a reminder ahead of the presidential election that Trump is unfit for office due to an incurable impulse to break the law for political gains — and his lack of moral virtue.
Pro-Trump narrative
Following a politically motivated trial that was anything but fair, Trump was found guilty of something that has yet to be explained since jurors were told they didn't have to agree on what he did wrong. In the face of such a travesty of justice, it's up to voters to protect the rule of law and vote out Biden.
Nerd narrative
There's a 55% chance that Donald Trump will be elected to be US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
OpenAI Says it Removed Russian, Chinese Disinformation Campaigns
In a report released on Thursday, OpenAI said it had taken down Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and Israeli influence campaigns that allegedly used its artificial intelligence (AI) tools to manipulate public opinion.
The report claimed OpenAI's researchers banned accounts linked to five covert disinformation operations using its generative AI models to spread multilingual propaganda on social media platforms, adding none of them gained traction.
Ben Nimmo, an OpenAI investigator, said online deception campaigns often used OpenAI's technology to share political content, adding that they didn't have an impact and "still struggle to build an audience."
Narrative A
AI enables rapid, large-scale dissemination of false content, undermining trust in systems like democracy. Despite some state actions and federal efforts, there are no comprehensive laws to counteract these threats. Policymakers must enforce regulations to label AI-generated content, protect voters, and ensure public involvement in AI policy decisions to safeguard democracy from these emerging risks.
Narrative B
The world must avoid being overly restrictive in formulating AI regulations, as this could stifle innovation. A balanced, dynamic approach to assessing AI risks is key, exploring new high-risk tech as needed. AI's potential for public opinion manipulation and copyright violations must be curbed, no doubt. However, nations must surely tap its advantages and maximize its benefits for their people.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country will be widely attributed to an AI-based system before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US, China Defense Chiefs Hold First Official Meeting Since 2022
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and China's Minister of National Defense Dong Jun held their first face-to-face talks on Friday on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. It was Austin's first meeting with a Chinese counterpart since late 2022.
According to the Chinese defense ministry, the meeting was "positive, practical and constructive," with both exchanging views, including on ties between the two militaries, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Ukraine conflict.
However, Dong reportedly warned the US against interfering in Chinese-Taiwanese affairs, adding that Washington's support to Taiwan sends a wrong message to "separatist forces."
Pro-establishment narrative
The Austin-Dong meeting proves that the US is doing its utmost to ease bilateral tensions for the benefit of the international community. In Singapore, Austin reiterated that Washington remains committed to its long-standing one-China policy, but that Beijing should cease its provocative actions around the Taiwan Strait. The US remains committed to regional peace and stability — but will not be deterred from continuing to fly, sail, and operate under international law.
Establishment-critical narrative
It is to China's credit that it agreed to a direct meeting between Dong and Austin despite the US saber-rattling in the South China Sea and its interference in China's internal affairs concerning Taiwan. While Washington tirelessly portrays China as a threat, it's Washington and its allies who — trapped in a Cold War mentality — intentionally undermine regional peace and stability. China prefers dialog but is prepared to use its military to protect its sovereignty and interests.
Nerd narrative
There's a 45% chance that the People's Republic of China will control at least half of Taiwan before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Allows Limited Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory
US Pres. Joe Biden has given Ukraine approval to use American weapons to carry out limited strikes on Russian territory — green-lighting a change of policy that was previously ruled out over fears it would drag the US into direct confrontation with Russia.
Coming after days of pressure to relax the rules that had been in place, the change of policy was not initially publicly announced. Rather, it was briefed to reporters at multiple outlets by US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has since confirmed the move.
One US official who spoke to Politico said: "Ukraine is able to use US weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them." However, it was added that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia "has not changed."
Pro-establishment narrative
This decision, which applies only in the areas near Kharkiv, only enables Ukraine to strike Russian troops as they attack or prepare to attack and will help Ukraine better defend itself. There's no change in the broader policy of not permitting strikes on non-military sites as well as targets deep inside Russia.
Pro-Russia narrative
This is a dangerous escalation of the conflict. Russia has no choice but to eliminate these long-range weapons, in addition to the NATO personnel required to operate them, which will inevitably lead to NATO countries invoking Article 5 on collective defense. A global war is all but inevitable after this reckless move on the part of the US.
Nerd narrative
There's a 21% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Former US Official: State Department Falsified Gaza Aid Report
Stacy Gilbert, a senior civil-military adviser in the US Department of State's Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration who resigned this week, claimed that the State Dept. falsified a report from earlier this month to absolve Israel of responsibility for blocking humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Gilbert asserted that the State Dept. ignored the "consensus among the humanitarian community" and its own experts in the NSM-20 report, which said the Israeli government was not restricting "the transport or delivery of US humanitarian assistance" into Gaza. Gilbert did say that other factors also contributed to the lack of aid distribution.
Gilbert, who said she participated in the report as a subject matter expert, decided to resign after the report was released on May 10, as she claimed there was "quantifiable data" showing that Israel was impeding the delivery of aid such as flour.
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to get aid into Gaza, including putting pressure on Israel to open the Rafah and Kerem Shalom crossings. However, this is a complex situation, and the cooperation of other actors, such as Egypt, is necessary for aid to be properly distributed. The Biden admin. always welcomes diverse points of view, and the NSM-20 report on the humanitarian situation in Gaza reflects that.
Establishment-critical narrative
The lengths the Biden admin. will go to cover for Israel's crimes in Gaza are unprecedented — even as more and more officials resign over White House-driven policies. The US has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire, yet pretends that it is pressuring Israel to stop the war.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 500,000 Palestinians will be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Large Parts of Sudan at Risk of 'Imminent' Famine
According to the heads of 19 global humanitarian groups, obstacles to providing aid to the Sudanese people will grow "rapidly and at scale." In a joint statement, United Nations agencies and nongovernmental organizations have warned that "imminent" famine could ravage large parts of the nation.
As the war between Sudan's army and the opposing paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has continued for more than a year, a joint statement noted that 18M people are already acutely hungry, including 3.6M children who are acutely malnourished.
15.6% of children under five years old are malnourished In the Central Darfur region, with another 30% in the North Darfur refugee camp lacking proper nourishment. The war has also killed thousands, including an estimated 15K in one West Darfur town.
Pro-establishment narrative
Sudan has been on a path toward famine since earlier this year, with over 8M people displaced and 18M going hungry. While neighboring countries have heroically opened their borders to refugees, and the EU gave Egypt $9B for expected arrivals, the world's more wealthy countries must take a stronger stance before Sudan collapses entirely. If this conflict, coupled with what's going on in Gaza, isn't fixed now, countries in the Middle East and Europe will face overwhelming migration.
Establishment-critical narrative
As one of the most agriculturally fertile places in Africa, Sudan should not be facing famine. However, thanks to Western intervention, such as the US-backed secession of what's now called South Sudan to gain control of its oil, Sudan has been turned upside down, with warring factions filling the political vacuum. While the UN repeatedly warns of famine, the Western elites who fund bad-faith operations appear to have no desire to fix the mess they've created.
Nerd narrative
There is a 51% chance that no presidential election is held in South Sudan in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Roberts Rebuffs Senate Democrats' Invitation to Discuss Ethics, Alito
US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) Chief Justice John Roberts on Thursday rebuffed Democratic senators' request to have Justice Samuel Alito recuse himself from cases involving the Jan. 6, 2021 US Capitol riots and turned down an invitation to speak with those senators about ethics at the Court.
Roberts wrote that justices should continue making their own decisions about recusals, and he would "respectfully decline" meeting with the senators because a "meeting with leaders only of one party" would be "inadvisable."
Previously, Democratic leaders of the Senate Judiciary Committee last week sent their requests to Roberts in response to media reports about Alito flying flags reportedly associated with the "Stop the Steal" movement in front of his homes in Virginia and New Jersey.
Right narrative
Roberts was right to shoot down the Democrats' invitation. Congressional Democrats have had it in for conservative justices for years and even used a portion of their letter to Roberts to complain about Justice Clarence Thomas in addition to Alito. Democrats are seemingly never going to quit pursuing these justices over nothing, and Roberts is absolutely correct to not indulge them.
Left narrative
Roberts has again proven why he'll probably go down in history as one of the most problematic chief justices ever. Even if he doesn't deem it wise to meet with Democrats, Roberts could at least take steps to implement strict ethics rules for judges. This would reassure legislators and the public that there won't be any improprieties involving future cases. Instead, he continues to stymie every attempt to hold SCOTUS accountable.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that there will be any change in the composition of SCOTUS in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.