Missing F-35 Jet's Wreckage Located
The US military said on Monday evening that the debris of a missing F-35 fighter jet had been discovered in South Carolina, one day after the Marine Corps mysteriously lost track of it.
The discovery comes after officials at Joint Base Charleston asked the public to "locate an F-35 that was involved in a mishap." The jet's pilot, who ejected safely, is reportedly receiving medical care.
The $80M Lightning II jet belonged to the Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron 501 with the 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing based in Beaufort, near the South Carolina coast.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's ridiculous that the US military lost an ultra-high-tech fighter jet and were forced to turn to the public to find it, rather than use a tracking device. The fact that civilians had been tasked with locating the most advanced and lethal fighter jet in the world calls the competency of the military authorities into question.
Pro-establishment narrative
The F-35s are designed to be difficult to detect, and their anti-radar capabilities are one of the key reasons they are enlisted in the US military. While it may be frustrating that the stealthy jet couldn't be tracked, it's also testament to the efficacy of the technology, as the jet proved undetectable while airborne.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that the US President's ability to deploy military force will be further restricted by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Virginia: Rep. Jennifer Wexton Won't Seek Re-election
Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) announced on Monday that she will not run for re-election in 2024, citing her declining health following a Parkinson's diagnosis in April.
As her diagnosis developed from Parkinson's to Progressive Supra-nuclear Palsy (PSP), Wexton said she was "heartbroken" that she wouldn't be able to serve her community once her term was complete.
The 54-year-old congresswoman added that she has "always believed that honesty is the most important value in public service," also saying that "the new diagnosis is a tough one."
Narrative A
This is indeed tragic news. Representative Wexton has run spirited re-election campaigns against the GOP since 2018 and both sides of the aisle wish her the very best in the battle with this horrific disease. Looking forward, her absence in 2024 will ultimately translate to a competitive race, with politicians from the Democratic and Republican parties looking to win the opportunity to serve those in Wexton's district with the same commitment and conviction the representative has shown throughout her long career.
Narrative B
Although the GOP and Democrats can unite in recognizing the service and dignity of individuals like Wexton, there is very little else they can agree on. The dramatic rise is partisan animosity in the US in recent years has undermined American democracy, stifling dialogue and legislative progress. Wexton's service to those she represented should be recognized, though it should also be highlighted that her career is not indicative of the current festering gridlock that characterizes US politics.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 95% of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will be received by the Democratic and Republican parties (combined), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UN General Assembly Begins
The UN's annual General Assembly opened Monday, with Secretary-General António Guterres highlighting that the world is facing its highest number of violent conflicts since 1945, as well as high food prices, record temperatures, climate disasters, and unprecedented numbers of migrants and asylum seekers.
With the debates beginning Tuesday, global leaders from over 140 countries gathered in New York. Among them is US Pres. Joe Biden, the only leader of the five permanent members of the Security Council — comprised of the US, Russia, China, France, and Britain — to attend in person.
Speaking Tuesday, Biden touched on maintaining support for Ukraine, denuclearizing both the Korean Peninsula and Iran, and working with China. He also called for combatting climate change, particularly in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia.
Pro-establishment narrative
This year's General Assembly, and Biden's speech in particular, is a defining moment for the US and the UN. The world is becoming increasingly multipolar, and the US must show that it is still a leader in global affairs, able to counter Russian moves in Ukraine and meet the challenge from the Global South, which is increasingly turning to China. As Biden is the only Security Council representative to attend this year, it's paramount that he show the world that the West is still on top.
Establishment-critical narrative
The UN's sole job is to help fix the world's problems, but it has failed in each of the most important factors. War, famine, and migration issues have only become more prevalent, while US Pres. Joe Biden makes weak calls for de-escalation in Ukraine. Why has the international body pegged with bringing about progress only allowed for more hardship and destruction? It's time for a candid review of how the UN operates and the part that more neutral countries with fewer conflicts of interest are allowed to play.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance Russia will be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Italy Passes Tougher Measures to Deter Migrant Arrivals
On Monday, the Italian government passed stricter measures to crack down on immigration after about 10K migrants reached the southern Italian island of Lampedusa last week.
The detention period for migrants awaiting an asylum decision has been raised from three to six months, with a possible extension of up to 18 months. The government also approved setting up more detention centers in remote areas.
PM Giorgia Meloni claims the move provides Rome with the time needed "not just to do the necessary checks but also to proceed with the repatriation for those without the right to international protection."
Pro-establishment narrative
Before her election win, far-right Meloni had announced plans to close Italy's borders and echoed anti-EU rhetoric. Now, she is open to a pan-European solution to stop the influx of illegal migrants. The EU urgently needs a coordinated immigration policy, as the migrant crisis is an opportunity to strengthen the EU and demonstrate joint capacity to act. This would send an important signal before the 2024 European elections to forces that have already written off the EU.
Establishment-critical narrative
The EU likes to talk about standing up for freedom and human rights. In its dealings with migrants, however, it reveals yet again that this is nothing more than empty rhetoric and pure hypocrisy. The most recent example is the memorandum of understanding between the EU and autocratic Tunisia to prevent migrants from reaching Europe. One is reminded of the refugee pact with Turkey or the EU's collusion with Libyan militias to contain migrant arrivals. Neither Leyen nor Meloni seem to have a problem with that.
Narrative C
Although Leyen tried to signal solidarity and unity, her visit to Lampedusa highlighted the disagreement between Brussels and Rome on how to deal with the migrant crisis. While Leyen stressed the need for legal routes and humanitarian corridors to combat traffickers, Meloni wants to block departures while speeding up repatriations. Whether Meloni's vision of a "Fortress Europe" materializes will be a stress test for the supposed European unity.
Report: Evidence Suggests Ukraine Responsible for Deadly Donetsk Strike
A New York Times investigation published on Monday concluded that the evidence "strongly suggests" that Ukraine was responsible for a Sept. 6 attack on Kostiantynivka in Donetsk that killed at least 15 civilians — one of the deadliest attacks of this year.
At the time of the strike, which hit a market and other businesses in the predominantly Russian-speaking region, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed "Russian terrorists" for the attack. Most media also blamed the Kremlin without pointing to evidence for the allegation.
However, almost two weeks after the strike, the New York Times reported that the missile flew towards Kostiantynivka from a northwesterly direction in Ukrainian-held territory. This was verified by analyzing the crater as well as video footage of the strike, which showed people turning towards the sound and the traveling missile being reflected by the surfaces of two cars.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Russia was responsible for this heinous attack on Kostiantynivka that killed at least a dozen civilians and injured scores more. It's a further demonstration of Russia's use of terrorism against Ukraine.
Establishment-critical narrative
An analysis of the evidence suggests that Ukraine was in fact responsible for the missile that struck Kostiantynivka. This was likely the result of an errant missile which veered off direction.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hunter Biden Sues IRS Over Privacy Violation
On Monday, Hunter Biden, son of Pres. Joe Biden, sued the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS), alleging that the agency illegally released his confidential tax return information to the media.
The lawsuit, which was filed in federal court in Washington DC, does not name Gary Shapley and Joseph Ziegler — the former agents who turned whistleblowers — as defendants, but it’s focused on comments they made on television after testifying before Congress.
Hunter Biden alleges he is “the victim” of an effort by Shapley, Ziegler, and their legal teams to embarrass him by disclosing “confidential information about a private citizen's tax matters.”
Democratic narrative
Hunter Biden is fighting back against those accusing him of crimes while attempting to tie his father to fabricated wrongdoings. Although he’s a public figure, Hunter Biden still has a right to privacy that neither whistleblowers from the IRS nor Congress have a right to violate — especially if they’re going to spread misinformation about him for political gains.
Republican narrative
This lawsuit is a brazen attack on IRS whistleblowers who have come forward to show how political interference has obstructed the Hunter Biden investigation. The president’s son continues to act as though he’s above the law rather than being accountable for his actions.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that President Joe Biden will have a net approval rating of at least -11.1 by November 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UN: Crimes Against Humanity Continue in Ethiopia
A report published by the UN on Monday has claimed that war crimes and crimes against humanity continue to occur in Ethiopia — despite the state's government and regional forces in Tigray agreeing to a truce nearly a year ago.
The report by the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia documents human rights violations by all parties involved in the conflict since Nov. 3, 2020. The commission was established in December 2021.
It was found that at least 10K people have been affected by rape and other sexual violence alone, with the chairman of the commission, Mohamed Chande Othman, claiming that the truce signed last year has "not resolved the conflict in the north of the country."
Narrative A
Following the dangerous escalation of human rights violations in Ethiopia, the United Nations must commit to extending the mandate for the International Commission of Human Rights Experts in Ethiopia. Now is not the time to reduce pressure on a country that continues to engage in such atrocities from all sides. Suffering and instability must be stopped before it is allowed to spread even further into East Africa.
Narrative B
The tragic conflict in Ethiopia is best addressed not looking so much at international actors but at grassroots organizing and community healing. Ethiopia is home to a plethora of diverse ethnic, cultural, and linguistic groups. It's through local organizing and community-to-community dialogue that real progress in conflict resolution can take place. Relying on the state and international organizations is not enough by itself.
Nerd narrative
There is a 35% chance that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Nagorno-Karabakh: Local Armenian Reps. Meet with Azeri Side
Armenian leaders from Nagorno-Karabakh met with Azerbaijani officials on Thursday to discuss the dissolution of their unrecognized state, with Azerbaijan’s president saying that the "reintegration of the Armenian population of Karabakh, restoration of infrastructure and organization of activities based on the Constitution and laws of the Republic of Azerbaijan" had been discussed. Meanwhile, locals reported that some armed clashes may have erupted in the region's de facto capital, among other areas.
After Azerbaijan launched a military operation on Tuesday against the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is under ethnic-Armenian control, local forces surrendered on Wednesday under a Russian-brokered agreement to dissolve their military forces, disarm, and engage in talks regarding how to integrate the contested region into Azerbaijan. Local officials reported that scores of soldiers and civilians were killed and wounded in the fighting.
Azerbaijan said it used "precision weapons" in carrying out air strikes. Local representatives in the region claimed that "mass shelling" had taken place. Russia, which has troops on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh as part of the agreement that ended the most recent war over the region in 2020, called for both sides to return to a cease-fire and a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
Narrative A
It is clear what Azerbaijan's intentions are — ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh, known to Armenians as Artsakh. Azerbaijan, after weakening the region through months of a brutal siege, has decided that it does not need to follow international law or norms and can simply attack Artsakh's Armenian population. Without outside intervention and protection, thousands of years of Armenian history, heritage, and culture will be erased. Civilians were already enduring hard times due to the siege, and now they face the loss of their homeland.
Narrative B
Azerbaijan has finally triumphed and reclaimed its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. The goals of this anti-terror operation were to simply dislodge Armenia's military presence in the region and ensure the return of refugees displaced by Armenia in the first war. The civilian population and civilian infrastructure were not targeted, as Azerbaijan was only interested in neutralizing Armenian military targets. The only good war is a short war, and peace can finally return to the region.
Australia Declares Formation of El Niño
On Tuesday, Australia’s leading meteorological organization declared that the El Niño weather pattern has developed over the Pacific Ocean and will bring dry conditions conducive to heatwaves and wildfires to the already hot eastern region of the country.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s announcement follows a similar announcement made in June by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and in July by the World Meteorological Organization.
An El Niño occurs when the waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean become warmer than average, altering the atmospheric circulation and, subsequently, the global climate.
Narrative A
The announcement of an El Niño weather pattern is never welcomed. While the weather pattern varies in severity with each arrival, they more often than not spell disaster and ramp up global instability. The incoming El Niño is expected to be particularly bad and will likely result in the reduction of crop yields, putting both humans and livestock at risk of starvation.
Narrative B
As the El Niño weather pattern shifts into place, there will be winners and losers. Some areas of the globe can withstand — and even thrive —in the warm and dry conditions, while others cannot. However, before we panic and rush to prepare, let's be reminded that not all scientists agree that an El Niño will occur or that the severity will be astronomical. Current forecasts could be wildly inaccurate.
Nerd narrative
There's a 90% chance that there will be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Musk Suggests Paywalling X
Elon Musk, owner of X, formerly Twitter, floated the idea of a monthly fee for users during a talk he had Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Musk, who’s also in charge of Tesla and SpaceX, said a fee could help to fight “vast armies of bots” on the platform.
Previously, Musk has attempted to incentivize users to pay for X Premium, which gives subscribers more features, including longer posts and more visibility on the platform. But X is still free to use.
Narrative A
AI is getting smarter and it’s becoming more difficult to prevent bots from overwhelming the platform and amplifying hate speech. By charging a small fee, Musk can combat the bots while at the same time, he can open up a revenue stream that will make up for the dip in ad revenue. This is the right move in a challenging tech market.
Narrative B
Charging a fee might eliminate a large swath of bots from X, but it will also scare off multitudes of users. There are too many competitors for users to turn to now, so this is the wrong time for Musk to suddenly deploy a paywall. In the face of personnel cuts at X as well, this is a risky move.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 98% chance that Musk will remain owner of Twitter on Jan. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.