Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso Sign Sahel Security Pact
Military juntas of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso signed a security pact on Saturday that binds the three African countries to support each other against threats of armed rebellion or external aggression.
The Liptako-Gourma Charter — named after the Liptako-Gourma region where the Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso borders meet — establishes the Alliance of Sahel States, a combination of military and economic efforts to "fight against terrorism in the three countries."
The pact terms "any attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of one or more contracted parties" as an aggression against the other parties, which can come to the aid either individually or collectively, including by armed force.
Establishment-critical narrative
This dangerous pact is a reaction to the West's ongoing plunder of the continent's natural resources and the ECOWAS' intrusive plan to use force to "restore constitutional rule" in Niger. Both France and the US are responsible for creating significant divisions and heightening regional tensions. All of this could soon cause a full-blown war in the Sahel region.
Pro-establishment narrative
It would be foolish to call this pact an act of anti-imperialist resistance, as the powerful and privileged high-ranking army officers have toppled democratically-elected governments to serve their interests. If allowed to go unabated, they will forcefully suppress the voice of the people they claim to represent when it fits their agenda.
Nerd narrative
There's a 2% chance that ECOWAS will intervene militarily in Niger before Oct. 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Antarctic Sea Ice Surpasses Lowest Level in 36 Years
According to a study published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (a research institute affiliated with the University of Colorado Boulder), on Sept. 13, 2023, Antarctica's sea ice level is over 1M sq km (386K sq mi) below the previous record low maximum set in 1986.
Through the first eight days of September, Antarctica's sea ice grew at a rate of 65K square km (40K sq mi) per day. However, growth slowed after Sept. 8, 2023.
As no further net growth occurred, the sea ice surrounding Antarctica now reportedly measures less than 17M square kilometers — 1.5M square kilometers less than the September average.
Narrative A
Global warming — which has caused record-warm oceans and brought significant changes in ocean currents and wind patterns — is to be blamed for Antarctica's vanishing sea ice. A drop in the continent's sea ice levels has repercussions beyond the polar regions. This loss has consequences for Earth's greater climate and global weather events.
Narrative B
This isn't the first time scientists have raised alarms regarding vanishing sea ice levels in Antarctica. The region witnessed similar lows in 2017 and 2022. Besides, as scientists are still trying to figure out the factors that led to this year's low sea ice, it would be too early to jump to conclusions. The El Niño weather phenomenon, currently developing in the Pacific, could be at fault.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf will collapse by January 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Cuba: G77 Summit Calls for New Global Order
On Saturday, the two-day Group of 77 and China (G77+China) summit concluded in Havana, Cuba, calling for countries of the Global South to have a more significant say in the global governance system.
At the Summit, attended by more than 100 countries, the bloc denounced the current and allegedly "unfair international economic order for developing countries" in a final statement released by Cuba's foreign ministry.
Cuban Pres. Miguel Diaz-Canel, who currently chairs the bloc, stated that after the era in which the countries of the North "organized the world according to its interests, it is now up to the South to change the rules of the game."
Establishment-critical narrative
The G77 Summit is the most recent reflection of the global balance of power shifting in favor of the countries of the Global South. While South-South cooperation is increasing both quantitatively and qualitatively, the West is steadily losing its global influence. The greatest challenge to a more equitable world order is the US' unilateral efforts to defend its hegemonic position and prevent a multipolar world. However, formats such as the G77 and BRICS show that these efforts can't succeed.
Pro-establishment narrative
While China emphasizes that it's primarily concerned with a fairer global order and a greater say in the Global South within world affairs, it's clear Beijing uses forums such as the G77 to expand its influence in countries in the backyard of the US. The G77 is another building block to strengthen China's position in the struggle with Washington for future global leadership. However, it remains to be seen whether the bloc has more in common than mere criticism of the collective West's economic and political dominance.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance of war between the US and China before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ukraine Claims Recapture of Another Village Near Bakhmut
Ukraine said it has recaptured the village of Klishchiivka in the Donetsk region, marking what appears to be its second significant advance in a number of days.
This comes after Ukraine said it recaptured the neighboring village of Andriivka on Friday. Both villages lie roughly six miles (10 km) from the city of Bakhmut — captured by Russia in May after an eight-month battle that's considered to have been one of the most grueling of the war.
In his nightly address on Sunday, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: "Today I would like to particularly commend the soldiers who, step by step, are returning to Ukraine what belongs to it, namely in the area of Bakhmut." Singling out the fighters in Klishchiivka for their efforts, Zelenskyy added, "Well done!"
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Ukraine has liberated the village of Klishchiivka — a significant development as its terrain will act as a springboard for further advances in the Donetsk direction. This allows Ukraine to recapture more of the territory illegally occupied by Russia.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russian forces continue to repel Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Bakhmut. Claims that Ukraine has recaptured the two villages are unsubstantiated as fighting is still ongoing there.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Erdogan: Turkey May Part Ways with the EU
Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Saturday that Ankara could "part ways" with the EU after a recent report published by the bloc criticized the country for its alleged democratic shortcomings.
Erdoğan, who made the comments before flying to New York to attend the 78th UN General Assembly, also blamed the EU for "making efforts to sever ties with Turkey."
The report, adopted earlier this week, said Turkey's accession process into the EU shouldn't be resumed under the current circumstances, citing human rights violations in the country.
Narrative A
Erdogan's increasingly autocratic behavior and frivolous geopolitical bargaining are the only reasons for Turkey's stagnant EU accession bid. Only when the democratic backsliding, deterioration of fundamental rights, and the rule of law are stopped, — as well as Ankara balancing its geopolitical ambitions with its core economic interests — will relations with the West and the EU improve.
Narrative B
Turkey is a key economic and defense partner for the EU, yet anti-Turkey circles are attempting to bully Ankara by leveling unjust accusations based on prejudice alone. Besides, it's not Ankara's loss — a failure to grant Turkey membership in the EU will only hurt Europe's chance to redefine both itself and its raison d’être. This is an unfair way to treat a nation that comprises NATO's second-largest army.
Nerd narrative
There's a 13% chance that Turkey will be a member of the European Union by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
House GOP Releases Short-Term Budget Bill
Over the weekend, the House GOP revealed details of a short-term government funding bill to avoid a government shutdown while cutting funding by 8% to domestic agencies, except for Veteran Affairs and the Pentagon.
The legislation, which would fund the government through Oct. 31, also includes restrictions on immigration and the US border with Mexico. However, the measure lacks the funding the Biden administration requested for Ukraine.
Representatives from two of the Republicans’ five ideological factions — the Freedom Caucus and the Main Street Caucus — negotiated the deal. A total of GOP members conducted the negotiations.
Republican narrative
It should be the goal of every Republican and every conservative to reduce government spending, increase border security, and eliminate woke from government policies. This bill does it all. If the Senate, led by Democrats, doesn’t agree with the provisions in this bill, it will prove they’re out of touch and infatuated with woke, government spending to understand what’s best for the country.
Democratic narrative
First, a major faction of the GOP held vital Pentagon funding hostage in an attempt to get more spending cuts to unrelated programs. Now they’re using a government shutdown as a threat, and their only stopgap solution reinstates Trump-era border restrictions, makes steep cuts, and ignores the president’s request for Ukraine aid. This is a bad-faith tactic by extreme conservatives to avoid blame for a shutdown if it occurs.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 50% chance that there will be a US government shutdown before Jan. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Cyberattack Strikes Clorox, Disrupting Operations
Some Clorox products are now in short supply after an August cyberattack caused large-scale disruption in the company's production.
The company, [headquartered in Oakland, Calif.], produces cleaning products like Clorox bleach and Pine-Sol and said that it doesn't have a firm estimate for when it will be able to fully resume operations.
In a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing, Clorox said that on Aug. 14, it had "identified unauthorized activity on some of its information technology systems," and has since initiated "manual ordering and processing procedures" and reduced its production in order to address the situation.
Narrative A
Companies often fail to disclose cyber attacks when they happen or hide the full extent of damages in fear of startling current or potential customers, damaging their stock value, or incurring legal challenges. It's important that organizations urgently share when they have been the victim of a complex cyberattack in order to raise public awareness of the impacts. This Chlorox shortage — while not at the scale of 2020 COVID-era shortages — is an example of how disruptions can potentially impact daily life.
Narrative B
While companies in general need to be transparent about their cyber processes and infrastructure, simple human error is to blame for 82% of cyber consequences. Employees are often the people who accidentally expose sensitive information that enables cyber criminals to access a company's systems. Despite the complex impacts on supply chains, simple training of real people on what to click and what to avoid can greatly reduce this issue.
Nerd narrative
There's a 97% chance that an AI system will be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
5 Americans Freed in Iran Deal Land in US
On Tuesday, five Americans released from an Iranian prison a day earlier landed at Fort Belvoir, Virginia, following a deal that saw the US release five Iranian prisoners and transfer $6B in Iranian cash from accounts in South Korea to accounts in Doha, Qatar.
The American-Iranian dual citizens released are businessmen Siamak Namazi, 51, and Emad Sharqi, 59, as well as environmentalist Morad Tahbaz, 67, with the other two not yet publicly named. Of the five Iranians freed from the US, three chose not to return to Tehran.
While several Republicans have expressed concerns over Iran using the funds to support proxy groups in the Middle East, US State Dept. spokesman Matthew Miller said the US Treasury Dept. has "strict oversight" of the money and that Washington "has the ability to police their use."
Democratic narrative
The Biden admin. has freed five innocent Americans. The freedom and well-being of US citizens are paramount to this administration and are worth the high price. Besides, though Republicans may try to spin this as the US giving Iran "free money," the unfrozen funds are from legally undertaken oil sales, so the US taxpayer is by no means footing the bill. Also, the US is putting additional sanctions on Tehran regarding the killing of Mahsa Amini.
Republican narrative
This "deal" is nothing more than a reward for terrorism. The Iranian regime is one of the most rogue regimes in the world, and Biden just gave Tehran billions in funds that they can now use to threaten US forces and allies in the region. On top of all of this, Biden is enabling Iran to build a nuclear weapon through his misguided diplomacy, which would change the geopolitical fabric of the entire region forever.
Nerd narrative
There's a 70% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Texas Attorney General Paxton Acquitted
On Saturday, Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was fully acquitted of 16 charges of corruption, bribery, and misconduct following his impeachment trial.
Paxton can now be reinstated more than three months after he was suspended from office because the GOP-led Texas House of Representatives voted to impeach him over charges he abused his power.
Paxton, who denied the charges throughout the process, said "the truth prevailed" after the verdict.
Republican narrative
Democrats, the liberal media, and even left-leaning Republicans conducted a witch hunt based on rumor and innuendo, and they lost. Paxton maintained his innocence throughout this process, and this verdict is vindication against this politically motivated attack.
Democratic narrative
Paxton hasn’t been vindicated in this case, he’s just been saved by Republicans willing to place him above the law because he shares their politics. They used the Trump playbook to characterize his crimes as a "witch hunt" in the face of overwhelming evidence of guilt. Justice hasn’t been served, and democracy has been jeopardized.
RFK Jr. Reissues Call for Secret Service Protection After Security Incident
An armed man impersonating a US Marshal was arrested Friday afternoon at a Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign event in Los Angeles and taken into custody, according to the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD).
The LAPD identified the suspect Saturday as Adrian Aispuro. Authorities say the 44-year-old came to the event wearing a US Marshals service badge and was carrying a fully loaded gun in his holster.
Kennedy was speaking at the Wilshire Ebell Theatre for a National Hispanic Heritage Month event, and Aispuro had asked to see the candidate immediately. Subsequent analysis of Aispuro's social media accounts included posts and strong statements in support of former Pres. Donald Trump; Kennedy has re-issued his urging for Secret Service protection for his campaign.
Establishment-critical narrative
RFK Jr. absolutely deserves Secret Service protection, and Friday’s campaign event scare is just another example of how he's at uniquely high risk. The history of the Kennedy family should be enough to warrant this service, but Pres. Biden has refused to grant his Democratic opponent the security he needs. This, when contrasted with the Secret Service protection allowed for Hunter Biden, shows a hypocritical and dangerous hypocrisy by the White House.
Pro-establishment narrative
RFK Jr. is asking for special Secret Service protection that's not usually granted during a primary election, and he is claiming that Pres. Biden is denying him security protection is political posturing. Kennedy is trying to use his family’s history to get protection that no other candidate receives and is spreading dangerous misinformation about the process of receiving Secret Service protection.