Russia Continues to Claim Gains in Kharkiv Region
Russia has claimed it's making additional gains in the northeastern Ukrainian region of Kharkiv this week — territory whose control has already traded hands multiple times throughout the 17-month-old war.
Russia took control of vast swaths of the region following the outset of the conflict, but failed to reach Kharkiv city. In September, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise counteroffensive and took back most of the territory held by Russia there in lightning speed.
Earlier in the week, as Ukraine waged a renewed counteroffensive effort — namely in the regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia — Russia has sought to claw back territory in Kharkiv. A Russian defense ministry statement on Monday claimed to have advanced 1.9 miles (3 km) along a front that's 6.8 miles (11 km) wide in the region.
Pro-Russia narrative
As Ukraine continues to expend vast resources on its counteroffensive, it has left the Kharkiv region exposed and Russian forces are now making vast advances there. They have taken five settlements in the past few days.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
The intensity of fighting is heating up in the Kharkiv region. However, Ukrainian forces continue to take actions to stabilize and repel the Russian assault. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to enjoy success in the southern regions.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ohio Voters Reject Change to State Constitution
In a win for abortion rights groups ahead of a referendum this fall, Ohioans on Tuesday rejected a Republican-backed ballot measure, known as Issue 1, that would raise the threshold needed to amend the state's constitution from a simple majority to 60%.
With nearly all ballots counted, unofficial results showed that roughly 57% of the voters, more than 1.7M people, voted to defeat the proposal while nearly 43%, more than 1.3M people, were in favor.
This highly charged vote was heavily fueled by out-of-state donors who trumpeted the influence of special interests on Ohio politics. The full cost of the election won't be known until September.
Democratic narrative
While this victory far from indicates the GOP will lose its grip on power in Ohio, it does reveal that abortion remains a key issue for voters ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Abortion-rights ballot measures have been undefeated even in red states since Roe v. Wade fell, a streak that suggests Republican-controlled state legislatures can be circumvented by direct democracy.
Republican narrative
This vote doesn't show the success of direct democracy, but rather how outside progressive groups can undermine the people's voice by funneling millions in dark money to attack state constitutions and advance their radical agenda. Given that sitting on the sidelines is a strategy doomed to fail, pro-life supporters must stand united and firm to protect the unborn.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Dozens Dead After Migrant Ship Capsizes Off Tunisia
On Wednesday, Italian state media reported that 41 people are believed to have died after a boat capsized off the coast of Tunisia, with four survivors arriving in Italy after being rescued by a Maltese carrier.
This news comes as another 16 people died in shipwrecks off the coasts of Tunisia and Western Sahara earlier this week. The number of sub-Saharan migrants traveling through Tunisia to embark on sea crossings into Europe has increased significantly in recent years.
In this latest deadly shipwreck, the survivors said they set off on Thursday morning from Sfax and quickly sank within a few hours of leaving shore. Italian authorities don't have official records, but based on the testimony of the survivors, the adults and three children that passed away were from Ivory Coast and Guinea.
Pro-establishment narrative
Italy acknowledges the perilous and often deadly mission that migrants are embarking on to secure a better life for themselves and their families. To reduce the dangers and the loss of life, Italy has requested EU funding for African nations to increase measures to reduce illegal immigration. Italy has sought a commitment from its EU partners to protect the lives of these migrants. The humanitarian crisis requires every nation to pitch in for education, training, jobs, food, and security for the poorest nations in the world.
Establishment-critical narrative
While Italy claims to have the best interests of the migrants at heart, their legislative actions prove differently. The Italian government has been passing laws under the guise of emergency protective measures aimed at deterring migrants from arriving and criminalizing those that do. New laws will impede migrants' ability to seek protection and asylum, and restrict their freedom of movement and their ability to work once inside of the country. Instead of providing a safe haven, Italy is is seeking to make the lives of migrants just as bad, if not worse, than in their homelands.
SCOTUS Reinstates ‘Ghost Gun’ Regulation
SCOTUS on Tuesday voted 5-4 to permit Pres. Joe Biden’s administration to enforce a restriction on "ghost guns" — which are made from parts acquired in a purchased kit — while the administration appeals a lower court’s decision.
The administration last year expanded the federal definition of a firearm to include unfinished parts – requiring them to be licensed and feature a serial number. Manufacturers are also required to run background checks on buyers.
US District Court Judge Reed O’Connor in July ruled in favor of a group of gun owners, advocacy groups, and entities that make or sell affected products.
Democratic narrative
Although the country won’t be completely protected until the Biden admin. wins its appeal, the streets are safer today because SCOTUS is allowing the government to keep guns out of the wrong hands. O’Connor, a judge known for ruling with Republicans regardless of the case, ridiculously tried to claim gun parts aren’t guns, but SCOTUS saw through his partisan thinking, so hopefully the appeals courts will as well.
Republican narrative
The Democrats’ nonstop attack on the Second Amendment must end. Banning so-called ghost guns won’t make the country safer, but what might reduce crime is reconsidering the progressive law enforcement policies that have turned US cities into war zones. More law and order would do the trick better than taking away people’s right to obtain guns.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 0.2% chance that the Second Amendment of the US Constitution will be amended or repealed before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China: Consumer Prices Fall, Raising Deflation Concerns
On Wednesday, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that consumer prices fell in July for the first time in more than two years, highlighting a trend of deflation that affects household wealth and makes loan repayments more difficult.
The NBS report shows that inflation fell 0.3% in July and comes a day after July figures showed that imports and exports fell sharply during the month. Manufacturers and retailers are now forced to cut prices to deal with a glut of supply and sluggish sales, as producer price inflation fell by 5.4%.
China's economy has struggled to rebound since the end of the country's zero-COVID policies, with Beijing lowering interest rates and offering tax benefits to businesses in a bid to raise demand, while stopping short of major economic stimulus.
Anti-China narrative
China's powerhouse economy could finally be faltering, as its economic strength may be weaker than previously portrayed. After hedging their bets on a post-COVID boom that never materialized, Beijing will strain under a mountain of debt, lower demand, and a property crisis. The government has started to muzzle economists who don't toe the party line of economic success, as China attempts to maintain their façade of unmitigated growth.
Pro-China narrative
China continues on a trajectory of growth, as demand for services continue to rise as pandemic recovery continues apace, even amid a faltering demand for goods. The point plan unveiled by the government to shore up consumer demand is a testament to China's sober-minded thinking on the economy, as economic growth continues unabated. Reports of China's economic demise are, once again, greatly exaggerated.
Nerd narrative
China's GDP will be $17.06T in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Announces Deal with Turkey to Tackle Illegal Migration
In an attempt to tackle illegal migration from Europe to Britain, the UK has announced the introduction of a deal with Turkey centered upon joint police operations against smuggler rings and boat part trading.
Intelligence-sharing between enforcement agencies will be increased as part of a "centre of excellence," that will reportedly be established by the Turkish National Police. The government will assist in disrupting boat part sales, but the plans do not include provision on returning failed Turkish asylum seekers.
The UK's interior ministry has claimed that the centre will "enrich existing expertise," as both countries aim to disrupt "criminal networks organising illegal journeys." The UK will also increase the number of officers stationed in Turkey.
Right narrative
While the British Left believes the UK should be an international safe haven for migrants and the distribution global welfare, the reality is that illegal migration fuels labor exploitation, destroys cultural unity, and poses a threat to civil society. The UK must impose greater punishments for illegal entrants to the country and create a hostile environment for those who benefit from people smuggling and evading the law.
Left narrative
By the time the government's ineptitude concerning immigration once again sets upon the British people, it is likely the Conservatives will no longer be in office. There is no evidence that imposing harsh restrictions on illegal arrivals discourages refugees from fleeing unimaginable domestic conditions. The government possesses no real policies outside of the intellectually specious façade that the Tories can repel all those deemed as undesirable invaders.
Nerd narrative
There is a 77% chance that Sir Keir Starter will form the first government after the next UK election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Global Spread of Facebook Not Linked to Psychological Harm
A study conducted by the Oxford Internet Institute (OII) found "no evidence" that Facebook's spread throughout the world was consistently linked to negative well-being. Researchers studied nearly 1M people across 72 countries between 2008 and 2019.
The research, which didn't study other Meta-owned apps such as Instagram, divided users into two age groups, 13-34 and 35+, though it didn't analyze data for young people as a separate group. It also didn't examine the risks presented by certain types of content, such as material promoting self-harm.
The researchers, Prof. Andrew Przybylski and co-author Matti Vuorre, analyzed "three indicators of well-being: life satisfaction, negative and positive psychological experiences." While they found no general link to negative wellbeing, they did find that females were slightly more impacted than males.
Narrative A
The popular belief that social media is a detriment to society and our well-being doesn't add up when compared to the data. Previous studies have already shown that reports on negative body image and suicidal thoughts are blown out of proportion. While anti-social media activists like to compare Big Tech to Big Tobacco, another thing they're missing is that social media actually has positive effects alongside their statistically insignificant negative consequences.
Narrative B
While the size of this study should be appreciated and used for further research, it really doesn't provide a cause-and-effect result. The researchers even acknowledge that they didn't show the typical "97.5% credibility threshold in all cases," as well as that young people today don't even use Facebook. Concerns surrounding social media's impact on mental health are still legitimate, so we shouldn't let this correlative study sway our thinking.
ABC Closing Most X Accounts
David Anderson, managing director of the ABC, has announced all but four of the network’s accounts on X, formerly Twitter, will be shut down because of alleged “toxic interactions” endured on the platform.
Anderson said that aside from ABC News, ABC Sport, ABC Chinese, and ABC Australia, all accounts will be discontinued.
ABC claims Elon Musk's management exacerbated negative interactions, which led the company to close three accounts — Insiders, News Breakfast, and ABC Politics — in a trial run. Anderson called the results "positive."
Narrative A
Since Elon Musk bought the platform, X has become more toxic and there’s no other way to protect employees at the ABC or any media entity other than to leave it at least temporarily. If Twitter doesn’t improve its content moderation, it’ll continue to grow as a cesspool and be unusable to legitimate media and right-minded citizens.
Narrative B
The ABC, like other media outlets and many public figures, is overreacting. Data shows hate speech on X has declined since Musk’s ownership began. The platform under Musk has become a bastion of free speech and has eliminated political censorship. It’s only going to get better.
Study: 4K Daily Steps Enough to Lower Risk of Death
According to a study published Tuesday in the European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, walking just 4K steps a day could reduce the risk of dying prematurely from any cause.
A team of researchers from the Medical University of Lodz in Poland and Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in the US drew on data from 17 previous studies involving 226,889 participants.
The meta-analysis found that walking 3,967 steps a day could reduce a person's risk of early death and walking just 2,337 could lower the risk of dying from cardiovascular diseases.
Narrative A
Millions of fitness tracking devices have been sold worldwide as lifestyle companions reminding health-conscious people that taking 10K steps per day is essential to reap health benefits. However, this study may come as a breath of relief for millions of people for whom 10K steps can feel far-fetched and defeating. Trying to walk about 4K steps a day consistently can improve their health, and any slight increase in step counts every day will likely enhance their longevity.
Narrative B
This was an observational study, which is why its suggestions need to be confirmed in larger groups of people to prove that walking less than 4K steps per day could cause a reduction in the risk of death. Moreover, the impact of socioeconomic status and the methods for counting steps differed in all the studies included in the meta-analysis. Instead of focusing solely on step counts, lifestyle changes could also be emphasized in reducing cardiovascular risk and prolonging lives.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 70% of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden EO Restricts US Tech Investment in China
On Wednesday, Pres. Joe Biden signed an executive order (EO) restricting US investment in some of China’s high-tech industries, including quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and advanced semiconductors.
The EO, aimed at preventing US capital and intelligence from aiding in China’s military modernization and the alleged undermining of US national security, comes amid rising tensions between the world’s largest economies.
US Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen discussed these restrictions during meetings with her Chinese counterparts last month.
Anti-China narrative
It’s about time the US realized the threat China poses and acted to prevent it from obtaining advanced technology that’s crucial to building up a modern military. This is a national security risk the US must snuff out.
Pro-China narrative
The US is only hurting itself and the rest of the global economy by issuing an order that will exacerbate the supply chain crisis. Meanwhile, China will continue to develop semiconductors and other equipment that will make its military as advanced as it wants it to be. It’s a lose-lose for the US.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 20% chance that there will be a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.