South Korea Proposes Talks With North On Separated Families
On Thurs., S. Korea's unification minister Kwon Young-se offered talks with Pyongyang to resume reunions of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War. The last in-person meeting took place in 2018.
This comes on the eve of Chuseok, a holiday celebrated on both sides of the Korean Peninsula, when Koreans traditionally visit their families.
Family reunions are the only opportunity for seniors in their 80s and older to meet long-lost relatives as they aren't allowed to cross the border freely. Pandemic restrictions have also added another layer of complication.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite its attempts to pose as a credible stakeholder, the Yoon administration is provoking confrontation by carrying out military drills and continuing adversarial rhetoric. It's presumptuous of the South to think that Pyongyang would be interested in engaging in talks with a government under untrustworthy circumstances.
Pro-establishment narrative
Seoul is willing to discuss with Pyongyang how to solve this topic once and for all and is prepared to accept ideas from the North. While the Yoon administration has adopted a hardline approach on security issues in response to Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs, cooperation on humanitarian issues must prevail despite political circumstances. This will benefit the Peninsula and the international community alike.
Nerd narrative
There's a 17% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
New North Korea Law Makes Nuclear Policy ‘Irreversible’
On Thurs., North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly passed a law allowing it to carry out a preventive nuclear strike if another country poses an imminent threat and declaring its status as a nuclear-armed state "irreversible."
This newly-enacted law also bans the sharing of nuclear technology with other countries.
It replaces a 2013 law that first outlined the country's nuclear status and allowed the use of nuclear weapons only to repel invasion or an attack from a nuclear-armed state.
Pro-establishment narrative
North Korea's actions pose a severe threat to the stability of the Korean Peninsula and the security of the rest of the world. The US has so far failed to negotiate an end to nuclear weapons in exchange for humanitarian assistance - it's time for some new ideas about how to resolve this threat.
Establishment-critical narrative
Though Kim may seem like a madman, he's simply using the only leverage he has in dealing with South Korea and the US. His nuclear ambitions are designed to seek political gains and sanctions relief after successive American administrations derailed diplomatic routes to denuclearization.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Oberlin College to Pay $36M to Bakery Over Racism Claims
Oberlin College, a liberal arts institution located southwest of Cleveland, Ohio, has agreed to pay $36.59M to local bakery Gibson's over claims of false accusations of racism against the shop.
The libel case began in 2016 when a white bakery employee caught a black student shoplifting and chased him into the street. Hundreds of Oberlin's students and several administrators, including the dean, later gathered in protest outside the bakery, alleging racism.
Leaflets were also printed by students that alleged the bakery was, "[a] racist establishment with a long account of racial profiling and discrimination." In 2019, a court found the school guilty of libel.
Right narrative
An independent family business was almost destroyed by false accusations of racism made by this woke institution, and, even after the Gibson family members were vindicated at trial, Oberlin continued to discriminate against them. This is a victory for independent businesses against powerful bullies and serves as an example to other liberal academia who play the name-and-shame game.
Left narrative
This result isn't a vindication - it has only shown that colleges should fear taking up their students' causes, and that the First Amendment isn't as protective of protest as many think. The courts have held Oberlin accountable for "publishing" claims made in student flyers, thereby setting a legal precedent that could see students' free speech put in jeopardy as schools across America reckon with their apparent liability.
Nerd narrative
There is a 10% chance that the ACLU will argue that hate speech shouldn't be protected by the First Amendment before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pakistan: Court Indicts Former PM Imran Khan in Contempt Case
On Thurs., the Islamabad High Court ruled that it will indict former Pakistan PM Imran Khan for "criminal contempt of court" over comments against a lower court female judge.
This comes as the five-member panel decided that Khan failed to show any "remorse or regret" even in a revised response submitted on Wed. by his legal team.
Last month, Khan said in a public rally "we will not spare you" about a magistrate who declined bail to one of his aides.
Establishment-critical narrative
Khan was right not to acknowledge wrongdoing. Pakistan's current legislative and judicial branches know that he remains immensely popular to the point where he may win the election, which is why they're trying to disqualify him before he has the chance to get back into office.
Pro-establishment narrative
Not only is Khan undermining the safety and legitimacy of Pakistan's ruling government and institutions, but he's chosen to tear the system apart when Pakistanis need strong governance in the face of its catastrophic floods. His actions are destroying the people's faith in their leaders and drawing concern from the international community.
Day 198 Roundup: Reports of Ukrainian Gains Continue as EU Suspends Visa Facilitation with Russia
Ukraine's counteroffensive in the north-eastern Kharkiv region is reportedly continuing to make advances, with visual reports seemingly confirming that Ukrainian forces have retaken the city of Balakliya, 55 mi (90 km) south-east of the city of Kharkiv. Imagery also confirmed the presence of Ukrainian troops on the outskirts of Kupiansk, reportedly a key logistical hub for Russian forces in the region.
According to a statement released on Fri. by the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, troops advanced roughly 30 mi (50 km) in three days, and more than 20 settlements were liberated from Russia. The statement also claimed Ukraine had made advances in the region of Donetsk, namely in the directions of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, though the claims couldn't be independently verified at this stage.
Meanwhile, Russian shelling in the Kharkiv region has killed four civilians and injured 10 others in the past day, according to Ukrainian officials. Russian shelling also continued in the region of Sumy, reportedly striking a hospital and causing a number of casualties, and Donetsk, where Ukrainian officials reported nine civilians had been killed and 23 more were injured. Separatist officials from the Donetsk People's Republic reported that one civilian was killed and four injured in Ukrainian shelling.
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 9% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Sanctions Firms Over Alleged Iranian Drones in Ukraine
On Thurs., the US Dept. of the Treasury announced sanctions against several Iranian companies for allegedly producing and transferring drones to Russia for use in Ukraine.
Tehran-based Safiran Airport Services, one of the sanctioned companies, is accused of coordinating military flights between Iran and Russia transporting drones, personnel, and equipment.
Three other firms – Paravar Pars Company, Design and Manufacturing of Aircraft Engines, and Baharestan Kish Company – have been designated for their alleged involvement in the research, development, and production of Iranian Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is a necessary step in halting the dangerous and growing partnership between Moscow and Tehran, with Iran having become Russia's only weapon supplier. While this emerging alliance may isolate Russia even more in the long term, it poses another complication to restoring the already stalled 2015 Iranian nuclear deal.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite Iran having openly expressed its opposition to the war in Ukraine, the West keeps falsely accusing Tehran of supporting Russia. This smear campaign comes as a desperate attempt to halt Iran's technological advances now that the country is capable of producing and exporting drones.
Mich. Abortion Rights Initiative to Appear in Nov. Ballot
In a 5-2 ruling on Thurs., the Mich. Supreme Court ordered a citizen-initiative ballot measure that seeks to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution be added to the Nov. ballot.
This ruling was certified by the state's board of canvassers Fri. morning, and means that voters will be allowed to weigh in on the question of abortion rights in the state.
Supporters of the amendment say that this initiative could block the 1931 abortion law - which banned the procedure even in the cases of rape and incest.
Right narrative
This initiative, along with the judge's ruling, are obvious attempts to reinstate Roe v. Wade in Michigan. Judge Gleicher's bias came into play, as she's reported to be a regular donor to Planned Parenthood. By going against the ruling of SCOTUS it's clear that left-leaning agendas were part of the equation in these decisions.
Left narrative
These recent decisions are critical victories to secure reproductive rights in Michigan in a post-Roe v. Wade environment. This will bring the state closer to protecting a woman's right to choose and ensuring the continuity of healthcare - striking down the archaic 1931 law is just and necessary.
Nerd narrative
There is a 5% chance that abortion will be banned nationwide in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
India and PRC Begin Pullback from Disputed Border
On Thurs., China and India announced that their troops have begun to "disengage in a coordinated and planned way" from patrolling 'Post-15' in the Gogra-Hotspring area of eastern Ladakh.
The retreat from the area known in China as 'Jianan Daban' was agreed upon in the 16th round of Corps Commander-level military meetings in July between the two nations. Completion of the withdrawal is expected by Sept. 12.
Tensions between the two nuclear powers, who fought a major war in 1962, escalated in 2019 after India unilaterally revoked Kashmir's special status and China stationed troops along its border with Ladakh.
Narrative A
Working through these issues can help forge a strong and dynamic relationship between these two Asian powers. On the world stage, the mutual withdrawal also showcases Beijing's ability to broker a positive environment for resolving conflicts in the region.
Narrative B
This process is going to be long and complex. While it's a much-needed step toward achieving a peaceful solution to this tense border standoff, many steps remain. Both the PRC and India must continue to comply with the terms of the agreement and focus on any issues that result. The devil will be in the details.
Nerd narrative
There's a 30% chance that there will be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024, according to the Metaculs prediction community.
Memphis Livestream Shooter Appears in Court
19-year-old Ezekiel Kelly, the suspected gunman in the Memphis, Tenn. shooting on Wed. that killed four and injured three, appeared in Shelby County court on Friday.
Kelly has so far been charged with the first-degree murder of Dewayne Tunstall, the first victim in the shooting rampage that prompted a temporary shelter-in-place order and suspension of busses.
With more charges expected to be brought against Kelly - who says he isn't able to afford a lawyer - he has been provided a public defender.
Republican narrative
This latest shooting - along with other recent tragic events - calls attention to Tennessee's outdated, soft-on-crime policies. Kelly was a previously convicted, known danger to society, and yet the judicial system let him loose. This only affirms the need for Tennessee's "Truth in Sentencing" bill, which will go a long way to addressing a broken justice system.
Democratic narrative
Politicians are using this tragedy to push their political agenda and call for policy change in what is not only a disrespectful lack of regard for the victims, but also ill-informed rhetoric. The "Truth in Sentencing" bill would have required Kelly to serve 85% of his sentence, which means he still would have been out in time to commit this crime even if it had been in effect.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the US murder rate in 2030 will be at least 5.80 per 100k inhabitants, according to the Metaculus prediction community