02 May 2022
Daily Newsletter
West Bank Killings Follow Clashes At Al-Aqsa Mosque
The Facts
Israeli forces have arrested the suspected killers of an Ariel settlement guard shot in a West Bank attack late on Friday. The attack was claimed by Palestianian group Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, the armed wing of Fatah, that linked it to violence in Jerusalem. The deceased was later identified as Vyacheslav Golev.
In a separate incident overnight on Fri., a Palestinian man named Yahya Adwan was fatally shot in the chest during an Israeli army operation in the town of Azzun.
The developments came after fighting broke out between Palestinians and Israeli police on the Al-Aqsa compound early on Fri., the last Friday of the Ramadan holy month.
The Spin
Pro-Palestine narrative
While tragic, such operations come as a reaction to Israeli acts of aggression against Palestinians. Attacks carried out by Israeli settlers, right-wing militants and occupation soldiers are driving the security situation by radicalizing Palestinians to seek revenge.
Pro-Israel narrative
This is but the latest in a recent outbreak of violence promoted by Palestinians against Israel. With days of national celebration approaching, Israeli security forces must be on the look-out for more heinous terrorist activity, especially in Jerusalem where attackers may be seeking to damage the fabric of life.
Nerd narrative
There is a 10% chance that Israel and Palestine will hold peace talks in 2022, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.
CDC Confirms First Case of Bird Flu in Colorado Man
The Facts
A Colorado inmate has become the first human in the US to test positive for the H5N1 strain of Avian Influenza, or "Bird Flu." The inmate contracted the infection while on work release at a local farm.
The patient reported fatigue as their only symptom and is being isolated and treated with the influenza antiviral drug oseltamivir, also known as tamiflu. 10 people who were in contact with him are being monitored.
The CDC has decided not to reassess its current "human health risk assessment" due to this single case. It has monitored more than 2.5k people with exposures to H5N1. There are only two known human cases globally of the new configuration of the virus: this first infection in the US, with the other known case in the UK.
The Spin
Left narrative
Welcome to the "Pandemicene" era of Earth's history. By completely rewiring the globe's network of animal viruses, human-caused climate change is creating a new age of dangerous disease. Birds harbor a menagerie of viruses, including several dangerous influenza strains. This worrying future is already here, and will be difficult to address.
Right narrative
Woke alarmists are blaming conservatives for all woes on this planet. The latest installment in this tiresome drama is a "climate and virus crossover" episode. This is about fear mongering and government intervention into our private lives from a globalist, collectivist crowd. Even the CDC itself admits it's possible the testing swab in this case may have just picked up the virus in the man's nostrils, without him actually being infected - hence his lack of respiratory symptoms.
DOJ Sues Paul Manafort over Foreign Bank Accounts
The Facts
The DOJ has filed a civil lawsuit against former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort, seeking almost $3M in damages for allegedly failing to declare foreign bank accounts.
Manafort is accused of failing to report his interest in accounts, many of which were nominally owned by shell corporations, on his federal taxes. He was informed of the potential penalties in 2020.
The one-time chair of Trump's 2016 presidential campaign was first indicted in 2017 on charges of money laundering and obstruction of justice related to his dealings with Ukrainian politicians. Those charges were brought by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
Biden's DOJ just can't let go of the Trump-Russia investigation, the impetus of which can be traced back to Clinton campaign money. Now it's trying to extract financial penalties against Paul Manafort simply for failing to file a tax form. He has already been pardoned, but the Mueller witch hunt continues.
Left narrative
Trump's corrupt campaign manager just can't help himself. He could have walked away quietly after Trump pardoned him to secure his silence. Instead, he's re-hung up his shingle as the "torturer's lobbyist," and now the DOJ is coming after him for lying about his foreign assets.
Bombing In Kabul Mosque Kills At Least 10
The Facts
The Taliban said at least 10 people were killed and 30 were wounded after an explosion hit a mosque in the Afghan capital Kabul on Fri. Eyewitnesses feared that many more had died.
Hundreds of worshippers had gathered for prayers on the last Fri. of Ramadan in a ceremony that a suicide bomber attended before detonating explosives.
IS on Sat. claimed responsibility for the bombing, adding that it had also detonated an explosive device placed near a bus in a separate area of Kabul.
The Spin
Republican narrative
The current security situation in Afghanistan is a direct result of the Biden administration's decision to withdraw from the country. Ethnic and religious minorities are now being slaughtered by extremists because Biden thought it would be politically expedient to abandon allies.
Democratic narrative
The US' disastrous invasion and occupation of the country, not Biden's withdrawal, are to blame for the current security crisis. The fact that Afghan security forces collapsed following the US withdrawal indicates that the security situation was simply unsustainable, making attacks like this one, unfortunately, inevitable.
Day 68 Roundup: Attack on Mariupol Resumes Amid Hope For Further Evacuations
The Facts
Russia reportedly resumed attacks on Mariupol on Mon., following the evacuation of more than 100 civilians from the Azovstal steel plant over the weekend during a brief ceasefire. Mariupol City Council says another evacuation convoy is expected to depart early Tues. At least 100 adults and 20 children are trapped at the plant.
The UN and the Red Cross are assisting in the evacuation efforts. Evacuees are expected to be taken to the Ukrainian-controlled city of Zaporizhzhia but, as of Mon., the weekend convoy had not yet arrived there.
Meanwhile, a rocket strike hit the port city of Odesa, reportedly killing a teen and injuring a second child, according to Ukrainian officials. Russia also claimed to have destroyed a runway and a hangar filled with Western-supplied weapons near Odesa on Mon.
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking their promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided tragedy in Ukraine.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that Kyiv will be under Russian control before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Politician Resigns After Watching Porn in Parliament
The Facts
Conservative MP, Neil Parish, resigned from his role on Sat. after admitting he watched pornography in the House of Commons chamber.
The chairman of the House's Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee said he was attempting to access a tractor website when he found the adult content by mistake. However, he visited the site for a second time intentionally.
Parish was caught looking at the material by two female colleagues who filed a formal complaint against him.
The Spin
Left narrative
The Tory party's resistance to taking disciplinary action against misbehaving MPs has facilitated a rampant culture of misogyny and harassment in Parliament. Working practices in Westminster are in dire need of overhaul to ensure that perpetrators of abusive and sexualized behavior are held to account.
Right narrative
The Conservative Party are committed to tackling Westminster sleaze and are taking significant steps to ensure that half of their MPs returned in the next election will be women. Achieving equal gender representation in the Commons will transform a culture in which women are "tolerated" to one in which they are, rightly, valued.
Cynical narrative
The raging culture of misogyny in Westminster isn't party specific. More than 50 MPs are facing complaints of sexual misconduct, and examples of inappropriate and exploitative behavior have been seen on both sides of the chamber. From patronizing and derogatory comments, to older MPs asking young researchers to "sit on their knee", it's no wonder women are calling time on the climate of discrimination at the heart of UK politics.
May Day Protests in Europe; Violence Erupts in France
The Facts
Across Europe, citizens and trade unionists took to the streets on May 1 to mark International Workers' Day.
In France, tens of thousands demonstrated against Pres. Emmanuel Macron, demanding higher wages and condemning the government's plans to raise the retirement age from 62 to 65.
In Paris, clashes broke out between activists and riot police, who reportedly used tear gas to disperse the crowd after what some people described as "black bloc" anarchists damaged stores and cash machines.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Macron's re-election makes him the first French president in two decades to win a second term. This is a clear indication of the positive work he's done for France. Though perhaps painful and against the will of the left-wing parties and activists, the reforms he's initiated are paying off. He must stay the course to enable France to prosper again.
Establishment-critical narrative
The EU likes to present itself as a champion of democracy and social justice. But, even in France, the gap between rich and poor continues to grow, while Macron primarily serves the interests of the elite. The protests on May 1 were an expression of justified frustration that could lead to far more serious social unrest.
White House Correspondents Dinner Returns After 2-Year Hiatus
The Facts
The 2022 White House Correspondents Association Dinner was held on Sat., marking the first time the annual gala was held since 2019.
All guests were required to submit proof of vaccination via an app in advance of the event, which featured comedy by Trevor Noah, the host of "The Daily Show."
Biden also spoke at the event - the first time for a sitting president in 6 years. The event was canceled for the last 2 years because of COVID, and Trump didn't attend during his 4 years in office.
The Spin
Right narrative
The WH Correspondents Dinner is a national disgrace. Biden laughed and clapped as Noah cracked jokes about inflation and the botched Afghanistan withdrawal. Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media are out of touch with the concerns of real Americans.
Left narrative
It's refreshing to once again have a president with a sense of humor, who is capable of laughing at himself even as he goes about the hard work of governing. Equally refreshing is having a president who champions rather than attacks the press.
Narrative C
This dinner was nerve-wracking. Hundreds of journos, celebrities, and politicians - including the President - were unmasked and packed like sardines. Even Trevor Noah called it "nation's most distinguished superspreader event." Here's hoping, truly and genuinely, that it won't be.
Diplomats: EU Leaning Towards Russian Oil Ban by Year's End
The Facts
Europe is under pressure to put forward a 6th package of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine. The package is expected to target Russian oil, Russian and Belarusian banks, and additional individuals and companies.
The European Commission is also set to propose a plan to gradually move away from Russian oil to ensure that Germany remains on board and that international oil markets are minimally disrupted.
The EU gets 30% of its crude oil from Russia. Despite its current dependence, EU leaders are looking at a possible ban on Russian oil by year's end.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
A ban on Russian oil is risky business, but Europe has some options to source to other countries - including the US. It's possible that Moscow would retaliate and use natural gas as a political weapon, so this needs to be calculated very carefully.
Establishment-critical narrative
Any decision in the EU Commission requires unanimity. If the Commission proposes sanctions on Russian natural gas and oil, Hungary would simply veto it. Moreover, it's hypocritical to impose sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine, but not on the US for invading Iraq for equally unjustified reasons.
Report: South Asia's Heatwave 30x More Likely Because of Climate Change
The Facts
As South Asia's simmering heatwave continues - causing ~90 fatalities in the region and leading to extreme flooding from glacial melting, power outages, and stunted crop growth - a new climate report asserts that India and Pakistan will have increased chances of extreme heat events.
A study released on Mon. from the World Weather Attribution initiative found that the Mar./Apr. heatwave in India and Pakistan has been made 30x more likely because of climate change. Weather patterns enhanced by global warming in the region caused an increase in temperature of approximately 1.0°C (1.8°F) compared to preindustrial times.
Mar. was reportedly the hottest month in India since records began 122 years ago. The heat, combined with 71% less rain than normal, stunted crop growth and exacerbated concerns of a food shortage.
The Spin
Narrative A
Climate change has made heatwaves more frequent and more deadly in South Asia over the last decade. The IPCC warned of India's susceptibility to extreme heat in February and now the nation faces fires, disruption to education, power cuts and even fatalities amid this environmental crisis.
Narrative B
It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of climate change, but in reality they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.
Establishment-critical narrative
While the richest nations are preoccupied with short-term inflationary and supply issues, the developing world faces the massive and irreversible effects of climate change. Successive empty promises mean poorer countries are left fighting an economic, social, and environmental battle that their vulnerable infrastructures are unprepared to deal with.
Recaptured Fugitive Returns to Alabama
The Facts
Escaped inmate, Casey White, was brought back to Alabama for his first court appearance on Tues. night after being caught in a police pursuit that resulted in a crash in Indiana. The prison official who fled with him died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound to her head, according to the Vanderburgh County Coroners Office.
Casey White and former Assistant Director of Corrections, Vicky White (not related to the inmate), left the Lauderdale County Detention Center on Apr. 29, purportedly for a courthouse mental health evaluation, and hadn't been seen since.
According to Vanderburgh County IN Sheriff, weapons, wigs, and $29k were found as part of the evidence. Casey White had allegedly planned to engage in a shootout with law enforcement. He is cooperating with the investigation.
The Spin
Narrative A
Though her death is tragic, Vicky White was clearly the mastermind behind a very calculated plan. Her years of law enforcement expertise presented unique difficulties for authorities, who eventually brought this day manhunt to an end.
Narrative B
There are systemic issues in prison systems that need further scrutiny. Long hours, proximity of personnel to inmates, and staffing shortages create opportunities for inappropriate and unsafe relationships to form. Vicky White had an exemplary record and she was likely manipulated by Casey White in the volatile environment.
