Claims
RSM US"Because of those policy changes and tailwinds, we have reduced our probability of a recession over the next 12 months to 30% from our previous estimate of 40%."Apr 21, 2026
Goldman Sachs"[Goldman Sachs] raised its 12-month recession probability to 25% Thursday — up 5 percentage points — after a brutal February jobs report and surging oil prices forced economists to tear up their forecasts."Mar 12, 2026
Binance"The benchmark recession probability usually ranges between 15% and 20%, and the current reading is nearly three times the normal level."Apr 22, 2026
Jerome Powell“It’s a very difficult situation, but it’s nothing like what they faced in the 1970s, and .. I reserve stagflation for that, the word, for that period. Maybe that’s just me.”Mar 25, 2026
The Wall Street Journal"Economists placed the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 33%, up from 27% in the January survey."Apr 22, 2026
Moody's Analytics"Moody’s Analytics model forecasts a 49% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, the closest probability in years."Mar 18, 2026
Gregory Daco"Against this backdrop, we now place the probability of recession at 40%, but stress that those odds could rapidly rise in the event of a more prolonged or severe Middle East conflict."Mar 26, 2026
Hady Farag“People are preparing themselves for the fact that we are already in a recession now or that there is a high likelihood we will soon be in one.”Mar 30, 2026
JPMorgan"Looking at the economy, J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts a 35% probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2026, and sticky inflation will likely remain a prevailing theme."Apr 15, 2025
Mark Zandi“If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid.”Mar 18, 2026
World Oil"Downside risks are mounting, with the probability of a U.S. recession now estimated at 40%."Mar 24, 2026
Dan North“That makes me real hesitant to use the ‘R’ word. But certainly, I think we’re seeing a slowdown this year.”Mar 25, 2026
Mark Zandi“I’m concerned recession [in 2026] risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise.”Mar 25, 2026
Jacob Weinstein“I would say there’s a higher probability now compared to several weeks ago that we’re heading into a recession, but the question is how much and how elevated is it?”Apr 20, 2026