Will the US, Canada, and Mexico Renegotiate the USMCA by 2027?

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Last Updated 2 weeks ago

Bank of CanadaThe extension of CUSMA is the outcome assumed in the base-case projection.Jan 28, 2026

Bank of Canada

InvestingLive"Scotiabank's baseline is that USMCA gets ratified or extended with limited adjustments that don't materially change the macro trajectory."Mar 05, 2026

investingLive

Citigroup"We see renegotiation of USMCA as an issue of increasing focus in 2026."Sep 10, 2026

Citigroup

"Our baseline scenario expects a renewal of the USMCA no earlier than the second half of our 2026‑30 forecast period."Sep 10, 2026

Eiu

Chatham HouseThe USMCA will remain in place for at least 10 more years, until 2036, unless the parties agree on something different in the coming years of negotiations.Sep 14, 2026

Chathamhouse

APCO"Economic and political pressures may push the capitals toward full agreement by the end of 2026."Sep 14, 2026

Apusazublob01

Morgan Stanley"We continue to expect an outcome that preserves the agreement and resolves several outstanding disputes – auto rules of origin, labor enforcement procedures, and select digital trade provisions."Sep 10, 2026

Morgan Stanley

CSIS"The base case remains a painful extension, with negotiations stretching into late 2026 or beyond, concentrated in autos, energy, China-related disciplines, and enforcement architecture."Mar 15, 2026

Csis

Council on Foreign Relations"The deeply embedded cross-border businesses left attendees optimistic that the USMCA would be renewed at the end of its 2026 review, although with likely modifications. "Nov 13, 2025

CFR

Brookings"Projections predict that this review, however, is shaping up to be more of a transformative renegotiation."Oct 28, 2025

Brookings

Oxford Economics"Baseline (50% probability): The USMCA is renegotiated promptly after the July 1 review date and a new deal is reached in Q3."Feb 10, 2026

Oxford Economics