US Goods Trade Deficit Hits Record $1.24 Trillion

Are tariffs successfully rebalancing trade and boosting exports or failing their mission despite record deficits?
US Goods Trade Deficit Hits Record $1.24 Trillion
Above: An aerial photo of Longtan Container Terminal in Nanjing Port, Jiangsu Province, on Aug. 31, 2025. Image credit: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

The trade deficit narrowed sharply in the fourth quarter, proving tariffs are working to rebalance trade and boost American exports. The three-month average goods deficit fell 27% compared to a year earlier while exports climbed substantially. Even the annual goods deficit grew slower under current policies than the prior four years, showing real progress toward economic sovereignty.

Anti-Trump narrative

Despite sweeping tariffs, the goods trade deficit hit a record $1.24 trillion, completely undermining claims that protectionist policies reduce trade imbalances. The overall deficit remains the third-highest on record, with trade simply shifting from China to Taiwan and Vietnam rather than returning to America. Tariffs have failed to achieve their core intention while risking higher consumer prices.


Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies




© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.20.4

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.20.4