US Economy Grew 2% Amid Iran Oil Shock
The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
American manufacturing is roaring back, with gross domestic product (GDP) up 2% in Q1 and business investment in equipment surging over 10%. Factories are reopening, reshoring is accelerating, and companies like Apple, Nvidia and U.S. Steel are pouring hundreds of billions into domestic production. Tariff policy and a pro-worker trade agenda delivered what decades of globalist dealmaking never could — a genuine industrial revival.
Anti-Trump narrative
Any economic rebound is built on a shaky foundation — the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices have surged by roughly $30 a barrel, and the standoff shows no sign of ending. Meanwhile, the AI investment boom driving business spending is a textbook case of Fed-fueled malinvestment, with capital flooding into ventures propped up by distorted interest rates rather than real demand. A correction is coming, and workers will bear the cost.
Metaculus Prediction
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