Birth control

Study: Smartphones Potentially Linked to Global Birth Rate Decline

Does this show a technology-demographics correlation or should alleged links be viewed with skepticism?

Published MAY 18

Study: Smartphones Potentially Linked to Global Birth Rate Decline

Story

Above: Young people looking at their smartphones in London, U.K. on Feb. 25. Image credit: Mike Kemp/In Pictures/Getty Images

The Facts

A study by University of Cincinnati economists Nathan Hudson and Hernan Moscoso-Boedo suggested that birth rates in the U.S. and U.K. declined faster in areas that received 4G mobile internet earlier, with teen fertility in the U.S. falling roughly 71% since 2007. The study was published on April 29.
Free Press Journal
India Today
SSRN
According to the study, birth rates in the U.S., U.K., and Australia were relatively stable in the early 2000s but began to decline after 2007, coinciding with the widespread adoption of smartphones. France and Poland experienced similar declines starting in 2009, followed by Mexico, Morocco, and Indonesia around 2012.
Big News Network
Financial Times
Some researchers link reduced in-person socializing to declining fertility, with data showing that in-person social time among young adults in South Korea fell by 50% over 20 years. Finnish demographer Anna Rotkirch also found higher rates of sexual dysfunction among heavy social media users.
India Today
Financial Times
University of Pennsylvania economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde has described falling fertility as "the big question of our time," noting that 2023 was likely the first year in human history that the global fertility rate fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
Derek Thompson on Substack
Big News Network
A Eurostat report projects the EU's population will shrink by 11%, or about 53 million people, over the next 75 years, peaking at 453 million in 2029 before falling below 400 million by century's end.
Big News Network
European Union

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

Smartphones are a clear driver behind the global birth rate collapse. Teen fertility in the U.S. has dropped roughly 71% since 2007, and countries saw sharp declines exactly when high-speed mobile internet arrived, regardless of their economic conditions or cultural norms. Digital life has gutted in-person socializing, and fewer real-world connections mean fewer relationships and ultimately fewer babies.

Derek Thompson on Substack

Narrative B

There's currently a moral panic around smartphone and social media use, with little correlation to wider public or mental health outcomes. Phones and social media sites are important tools for young people as they foster complex social connections and navigate the world. Purported linkages between these technologies and alleged social ills must be viewed with cynicism.

PNAS