Rubio and Lavrov Huddle in the Philippines for Ukraine Talks

Have conditions shifted enough for U.S.-mediated peace efforts to finally succeed, or is a deal only possible on Russia's Alaska-summit terms?
Above: U.S. and Russian delegations meet on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila, the Philippines on July 23. Image credit: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio via X

The Spin


Pro-Trump narrative

U.S.-mediated talks have so far been unfruitful but the Trump administration remains committed to finding a solution, if conditions and factors have changed to make that possible. This is a senseless and bloody war that needs to come to a close.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia remains ready for a political and diplomatic settlement to the conflict, as long as it's in line with what Putin and Trump agreed in their Anchorage talks.


Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Go Deeper

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.7.2

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.7.2