United States of America

Prediction Markets and World Events

Are betting sites a success story or, with wagers on real-world outcomes, does society need to re-examine its relationship with these new gambling sites?

APR 7·Updated APR 28

Context

Above: A Polymarket pop-up booth at a bar near the White House on March 20, 2026. Image credit: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Facts

Background: Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based betting platform in which users place "investments" on world events, emerged in 2020 after it was founded by Shayne Coplan in New York City. Meanwhile, competitor Kalshi's website went live in 2021 after being founded by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara in 2018. These predictive betting platforms grew to prominence as gambling laws loosened in the U.S., with a swelling amount of money being bet in these online sites alongside the sports betting sites that have also entered the market recently.
Forbes
Archive
Wikipedia
Wikipedia
Bloomberg
Archive
CBS News
Bocconi Students Capital Markets
Daily Mail
Forbes
Scrutiny: In Polymarket's case, government scrutiny came soon after its launch. In January 2022, in a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), it was agreed that the New York-based firm would cease its U.S. operations and pay a $1.4 million penalty. It received CFTC approval in November 2025 after U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office and loosened the relevant regulations. Similarly, Kalhi was also locked in a litigation battle with the CFTC but prevailed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit in October of the previous year.
CFTC
Forbes
Archive
Bloomberg
Archive
Yahoo Finance
Prnewswire
CoinDesk
Reuters
The Trump Family: Not only did Trump relax the rules on prediction markets, his family have taken a financial interest, launching Trump Media & Technology Group, which seeks to launch Truth Predict alongside Trump's social media platform, Truth Social. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr., the president's son, is hired as an advisor to both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Bloomberg
Archive
Forbes
Archive
Wikipedia
Financial Times
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Politico
Future and Role in Politics: While it's not clear whether Truth Predict will be a player in the predictive gambling scene, Polymarket and Kalshi have since been at the center of a number of high-profile episodes that raise society-wide questions about their role in the world's body politic. In the last year alone, there were several instances that caught the public eye.
Wikipedia
The New Republic
South China Morning Post
Yahoo Finance
The Times of Israel
Shai Akabas
Archive
Israel: In March 2026, a first-person report from Emanuel Fabian that appeared in the Times of Israel documented how following his reporting of an Iranian missile attack near Jerusalem earlier in the month, he began receiving death threats. He soon realized they were linked to a Polymarket wager for whether there would be unintercepted Iranian missile strikes in Israel for that day. Previously, Fabian had also reported that an IDF reservist was indicted for using classified information in Polymarket bets.
The Times of Israel
Shai Akabas
Archive
The Times of Israel
Maduro Capture: Earlier in the year, days before the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in early January, a new user registered and allegedly placed a series of roughly $35,000 wagers in connection with the country. In April, the Southern District of New York unsealed an indictment against Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, accusing the U.S. Special Forces operator of inappropriately using classified information to make upwards of $400,000 in winnings. Polymarket said that in line with its new policies to combat insider trading, it referred the case to the Department of Justice and assisted in their investigation.
South China Morning Post
The New Republic
Donald Trump
Polymarket on X
Other Cases: Similarly, in the lead-up to the initial U.S.-Iran ceasefire in early April 2026, several new Polymarket users placed well-timed bets on that outcome. While they also raised suspicions of insider trading, no actions or prosecutions have so far been announced. Also in April, Kalshi announced it had issued five-year suspensions and fines on congressional candidates found betting on their own races. In France, meanwhile, temperature spikes at a Charles de Gaulle Airport weather station were linked to Polymarket payouts, sparking theories that someone used a hair dryer or similar device to game the outcome. Météo France filed a complaint with local police.
The Associated Press
guardian
Politico
Kalshi
NPR
Bitcoin News

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The Spin

Techno-optimist narrative

Prediction markets are clearly a success story. Polymarket has moved from the fringes of early crypto movements to being backed by traditional finance, with billions being invested in Polymarket and other predictive betting platforms. They are growing year on year and this industry continues to see growth. Furthermore, prediction markets serve an important social function by allowing the public access to information they otherwise would be locked out of, in many ways democratizing the flow of information for the average person.

Crypto.News

Techno-skeptic narrative

As demonstrated by the account given by the Times of Israel journalist, users of Polymarket sent a series of peculiar and increasingly more threatening messages to a journalist over his coverage of Iranian missile strikes near Jerusalem. What if a user of the site were to follow through with those threats? Additionally, there's the question of government officials betting using insider information, carrying out acts that may not even be legal in the first place. Governments will have to do more to regulate what could be a highly destabilizing new market.

The Times of Israel

Shai Akabas

The New Republic

South China Morning Post