Oil & gasoline

OPEC: Crude Output Approaches Pre-Iran War Levels

Are Gulf producers finding their feet after the Iran war or is one strong month too little to fill the supply black hole?

2 hours ago·Updated 34 minutes ago

OPEC: Crude Output Approaches Pre-Iran War Levels

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Above: An OPEC logo sign in Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 1. Image credit: Karolina Janik/JPix/NurPhoto/Getty Images

The Facts

OPEC announced on Wednesday that crude oil production had risen toward pre-Iran war levels, with OPEC+ pumping 41.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, roughly 2.04 million bpd more than in September and equivalent to 97% of the 42.72 million bpd the group produced in February.
OPEC
Quartz
Financial Times
As part of this, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter, produced 10.563 million bpd in October, up from 8.372 million in September and its highest level since February, when it reported 10.882 million bpd before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran.
OPEC
OPEC
Investopedia
Iraq and Kuwait likewise reported crude oil output in line with pre-war levels, producing 4.888 million bpd and 2.1 million bpd, respectively, compared to 4.14 million bpd and 2.58 million bpd in February. UAE figures were unavailable.
OPEC
OPEC
It follows Gulf producers' efforts to restore exports using workarounds to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, such as ship-to-ship transfers and pipelines, including Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, which Houthi fighters have targeted.
The Wall Street Journal
The Globe and Mail
Al Jazeera
Looking ahead, OPEC forecasts global oil demand will rise by 2.55 million bpd next year, averaging 108.3 million bpd, with growth of 180,000 bpd in 2026. Global oil supply, meanwhile, is projected to expand by 0.7 million bpd in 2026 and 2027.
OPEC
This comes as the deadlock around the Strait of Hormuz continues, with Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, telling Al Mayadeen on Wednesday that no negotiations are taking place with the U.S. and that the waterway will remain closed until Iranian conditions are met.
Al Mayadeen English on Instagram
Al Mayadeen

Sources Split

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The Spin

Narrative A

These figures demonstrate that Gulf producers are finding their feet after months of disruption and uncertainty caused by the Iran war. Already, numerous OPEC states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, have restored pre-war crude oil production levels. As these countries continue to adapt, the oil market will continue to stabilize.

OPEC

Narrative B

One strong month of production will not fill the black hole in the global oil supply, after the steepest drop in annual production in four decades outside the pandemic. With inventories near the bottom of a five-year range and refined product exports near 37% of normal levels, the risk that any fresh disruption could cause chaos remains high.