Nigeria: At least 30 dead in Kaduna State Attack

Is Nigeria finally winning the war on terror or failing its citizens with empty promises?
Nigeria: At least 30 dead in Kaduna State Attack
Above: A file photo showing military personnel inspecting the scene of the explosion at a mosque in the Gamboru market in Maiduguri on Dec. 25, 2025. Image credit: Audu Marte/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin


Pro-government narrative

Nigeria isn't sitting still — President Tinubu has approved a major military expansion adding 28,000 soldiers and four new army divisions to confront the violence tearing through the north. Joint U.S.-Nigerian forces have already eliminated the Islamic State's second-in-command, suggesting tangible counterterrorism progress. Combined with a record $4 billion defense budget, the measures signal a government that is serious about restoring security.

Government-critical narrative

Nigeria's recurring mass killings highlight the widening gap between government security promises and realities on the ground. As long as armed groups can attack rural communities without fearing a rapid and effective response, official assurances will continue to ring hollow and public confidence will keep eroding. The challenge is not only preventing individual attacks, but restoring trust that the state can provide basic security.


Metaculus Prediction



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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.7.2

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.7.2