LePage Flips Maine's 2nd District in Ranked Choice Win
The Facts
- Former Maine Republican Gov. Paul LePage won that state's 2nd Congressional District on Thursday, defeating Democrat Matt Dunlap after a ranked choice tabulation that gave LePage 170,890 votes, or 50.81%, to Dunlap's 165,432 votes, or 49.18%.
- The secretary of state's office tabulated 341,526 ballots over three days, with LePage holding 50.63% after blank ballots were set aside in the first round and 50.81% once second choices were allocated. The seat moves to Republican control.
- Dunlap conceded a week before the tabulation finished. Of 1,243 write-in ballots, 254 listed Dunlap as the next choice and 180 listed LePage, and the final margin of about 5,500 votes fell outside the threshold for a state-funded recount.
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The Spin
Republican narrative
A candidate whose record is already baked in can't be knocked down by a national wave, and the well-known LePage's win proves it. Winning the only unredrawn Democratic seat in a brutal cycle came down to a concrete record of paying off rural hospital debt and cutting gas taxes. Republicans hunting for a 2028 comeback have a blueprint sitting right there in Maine.
Democratic narrative
Losing the single unredrawn seat in a cycle that delivered roughly 40 House pickups is a self-inflicted wound from Washington operatives who tried to hand-pick a nominee and then slow-walked the money when their pick didn't advance. The Senate endorsement fiasco earlier this cycle, which luckily didn't cost the party, already showed how badly D.C. reads this state.
