Ossoff is 2028 Betting Favorite After 18-Point Win
The Facts
- Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) won a second term in Georgia on Tuesday, defeating Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) by 18 points in a state President Donald Trump carried in 2024. NBC News and CBS News called the race shortly after polls closed.
- Ossoff became the favorite to win the 2028 presidential election on the prediction market Kalshi, listed at 20% on Tuesday, up from 12% on Monday. Vice President JD Vance followed at about 16% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 12%.
- On Polymarket, Ossoff also stood at 20% Tuesday morning, up seven points, followed by Vance at 15% and California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 14%. Kalshi traders put Democrats' chances of winning the 2028 presidency at 69%.
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The Spin
Democratic narrative
Ossoff's decisive 18-point victory in Georgia marks a defining moment for Democrats, demonstrating the power of confronting corruption, economic inequality and political abuse with a message voters understand. His Obama-like gift for oratory and his success in a state Trump carried in 2024 put him at the center of the party's national conversation. The implications for 2028 are impossible to ignore.
Republican narrative
Ossoff weaved his way through a diverse electorate in Georgia, but don't get carried away about his chances nationwide. Collins didn't represent the Republicans' best, as he struggled to fundraise and earn major Republican endorsements. Also, Ossoff's campaigning with former Vice President Kamala Harris would likely hurt more than help him in front of independent and young voters across the United States. He has a long way to becoming presidential material.
