Israel, Ethiopia Strengthen Ties Amid Somaliland Tensions

Does Israel's growing partnership with Ethiopia enhance Red Sea security, or does it risk destabilizing the Horn of Africa by undermining Somalia's sovereignty and weakening collective counterterrorism efforts?
Israel, Ethiopia Strengthen Ties Amid Somaliland Tensions
Above: Priests of the Ethiopian Jew community in Israel celebrate the Sigd holiday in the Government House, Jerusalem, on Nov. 28, 2024. Image credit: Ori Aviram/Middle East Images/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

Gideon Sa'ar hosting Hadera Abera Admassu in Israel underscores a deliberate push to anchor Red Sea security through reliable regional partners. Israel's recognition of Somaliland and deepening ties with Ethiopia reflect strategic necessity in countering jihadist networks and Iranian proxies along vital maritime routes. Somaliland offers a stable, democratic foothold at a critical chokepoint, while Ethiopia's long-standing cooperation provides regional legitimacy for expanded counterterrorism coordination across the Horn of Africa.

Anti-Israel narrative

The optics of Israel accelerating Horn of Africa diplomacy come into sharper focus as Gideon Sa'ar hosts Hadera Abera Admassu in Jerusalem. Israel's recognition of Somaliland undermines Somalia's sovereignty, fuels al-Shabaab’s jihadist narrative, and risks drawing Israel into unresolved regional conflicts. Closer alignment with Ethiopia prioritizes geopolitical positioning over collective security, fragmenting counterterrorism coordination in a region already strained by proxy rivalries and displacement risks.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures



© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.20.2

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.20.2