Iran's brinkmanship over Hormuz is borrowed time. Its military, economy, and credibility lie battered, and Tehran knows any closure invites the very war that could topple it. The regime plays for delay, sensing that prolonged defiance will only deepen the consequences once events are settled. Its fear isn't American force alone, but the slow unraveling at home once the excuse of war runs out.
Iran didn't need to win the war outright — it only needed the Strait, and it got it. Through drone strikes, intimidation, and sheer nerve, Tehran turned a memorandum meant to guarantee free passage into a toll booth it alone controls. While Washington debates "love taps," Iran dictates who sails and who doesn't.
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