Finance

Intel Shares Plunge 17% on Weak Guidance

Is this the result of an overhyped, rumor-driven valuation or a strategic turnaround positioning for long-term success?

Published JAN 23

Intel Shares Plunge 17% on Weak Guidance

Story

Above: The Intel logo is displayed outside the Intel headquarters in Santa Clara, Calif., on Jan. 22. Image credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The Facts

Intel shares fell 17% on Friday after the company issued guidance below analyst expectations, projecting first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion with earnings expected to break even, compared to expectations of $12.51 billion in revenue and 5 cents per share in earnings.
New York Post
CNBC
CEO Lip-Bu Tan stated during the fourth-quarter earnings call that Intel would not be able to meet full demand for its products and that production efficiency remains below his targets, describing the company as being "on a multiyear journey" that "will take time and resolve."
The Wall Street Journal
CNBC
Intel reported a net loss of $333 million for the fourth quarter, worse than the $294 million loss expected by analysts, even as revenue came in at $52.8 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.42 exceeded analysts’ forecasts, according to FactSet.
New York Post
The Wall Street Journal
Forbes
CFO David Zinsner told CNBC that Intel expects customers for its next-generation 14A technology to appear in the second half of 2026, though RBC Capital Markets analysts warned that meaningful revenue contribution from 14A customers may not materialize until late 2028.
TipRanks
CNBC
Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers noted that Intel's external foundry revenue for 2025 was $307 million, including $222 million in the fourth quarter, up from $159 million in 2024, with the de-consolidation of Altera contributing to fourth-quarter external revenue.
TechStock01
Seeking Alpha
Intel shares had rallied more than double over the past year following investments from the U.S. government, SoftBank and Nvidia, with the stock reaching a 52-week high of $54.60 on Thursday before Friday's decline.
Forbes
CNBC

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

Intel's massive stock run-up to 88 times forward earnings was completely unjustified for a struggling company with 35% gross margins trying to catch up to TSMC, which trades at under 20 times earnings. The foundry customer announcements won't come until late this year at the earliest, exposing Wall Street rumors as pure speculation that artificially inflated the stock price over 130% in six months.

The Wall Street Journal

Seeking Alpha

Narrative B

Intel beat earnings expectations and is strategically focusing production capacity on high-margin Xeon processors to capitalize on the booming data center market, a smart move that positions the company for long-term success. Supply constraints are temporary and will improve starting in the second quarter, making current weakness a short-term issue rather than a fundamental problem with Intel's multiyear turnaround plan.

TipRanks