Study: HPV Vaccine Prevents Cervical Cancer Deaths

Is the HPV vaccine enough to end cervical cancer or do we still need screening to save lives?
Study: HPV Vaccine Prevents Cervical Cancer Deaths
Above: A person holds a cervical cancer prevention placard in the lobby of the Scottish Parliament on Jan. 26, 2023. Image credit: Ken Jack/Getty Images

The Facts

  • According to a study published in The Lancet and funded by Cancer Research U.K. on Wednesday, the HPV vaccine has prevented nearly 200 deaths from cervical cancer among young women in England since the program launched in 2008.
  • For the first time on record, no women aged 20 to 24 died from cervical cancer in England between 2020 and 2024. Based on historical rates, around 23 deaths would have been expected in that period.
  • The Queen Mary University of London-led study found an 80% reduction in cervical cancer deaths among women aged 20 to 24 from 2015 to 2019, and estimates that girls vaccinated at ages 12 to 13 have close to zero risk of dying from the disease before age 30.

Sources Split


The Spin


Narrative A

No young women in England have died of cervical cancer in years, and that's a direct result of the HPV vaccine working as promised. Evidence shows vaccination slashes cervical cancer risk by at least 80%, especially when given before adolescence. This is one of the only cancers humanity can actually prevent, and getting vaccinated is the most powerful step anyone can take.

Narrative B

Cervical cancer rates were already declining before the 2008 rollout due to screening, improved diagnostics, and lifestyle changes — making it difficult to attribute zero deaths in young women solely to vaccination. The vaccine covers only some high-risk strains, efficacy claims rest on surrogate endpoints, and serious adverse events may be systematically underreported. In countries with robust screening, the case for routine adolescent vaccination deserves far more scrutiny.


Metaculus Prediction

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.17.1

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.17.1