Real estate

Home Sales Hit 9-Month Low, Prices Reach Record High

Is the housing market in a nationwide crisis or are affordable local markets proving the system still works?

Published APR 13

Home Sales Hit 9-Month Low, Prices Reach Record High

Story

Above: A home for sale in Oro Valley, Arizona on Dec. 12, 2025. Image credit: Michael Yanow/NurPhoto/Getty Images

The Facts

Existing-home sales fell 3.6% month-over-month in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, the lowest level in nine months, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales also declined 1% compared with March 2025.
National Association of Realtors
The median existing-home sales price rose 1.4% year-over-year in March to a record high of $408,800. This marked the 33rd consecutive month of annual price increases, as limited inventory continued to outpace demand.
The Associated Press
Realtor.com
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.37% last week, up from 5.98% before the conflict with Iran began in late February. This reversed a downward trend that analysts had expected to support a housing market recovery in 2026.
National Association of Home Builders
Yahoo Finance
NAR revised its 2026 existing-home sales forecast down to a 4% gain from a prior projection of 14%, citing rising mortgage rates and a weak first quarter. New-home sales are now expected to remain flat, revised down from a projected 5% gain.
The Wall Street Journal
Market Watch
Housing inventory stood at 1.36 million units at the end of March, up 3% from February and 2.3% from a year earlier, representing a 4.1-month supply — still well below the five- to six-month supply considered a balanced market.
The Associated Press
CalculatedRisk Newsletter
Month-over-month sales declined across all four U.S. regions in March, with the Northeast recording the steepest drop of 8.5% to an annual rate of 430,000 units. The West saw the smallest decline of 1.3% to 770,000 units.
Realtor.com
Barrons

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

The housing market is in serious trouble — existing home sales crashed to 3.98M in March, missing expectations and hitting a nine-month low. High mortgage rates and an affordability crisis are strangling demand, and no relief is in sight. Inventory is piling up because buyers simply can't afford to jump in.

Truflation on X

Narrative B

The national doom-and-gloom housing narrative falls apart when you look at markets like North Texas, where existing home sales surged over 20% in March. Lower prices and plentiful inventory are the real cure for a sluggish market — not waiting around for mortgage rates to drop. Affordable options bring buyers off the sidelines fast.