Hilton, Becerra Lead California Governor Primary

Is Becerra's experience the steady hand California needs or is Hilton's change message what voters really want?
Hilton, Becerra Lead California Governor Primary
Above: Supporters of California Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra in Los Angeles, California, on June 2. Image credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The Spin


Democratic narrative

Xavier Becerra is the clear frontrunner in California's gubernatorial race. His working-class roots and decades of public service make him the steady, experienced choice California needs. With Democrats outnumbering Republicans, a Becerra-versus-Hilton November matchup is essentially a done deal for Democrats.

Republican narrative

Steve Hilton is riding real momentum into November. President Trump's endorsement consolidated Republican support and made Hilton the only viable GOP candidate with a path to the general election. Hilton's affordability-first message is cutting through in a state with the highest cost of living in America.


Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Go Deeper

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.6.4

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.6.4