Japan Conducts Near-Earth Asteroid Flyby

Is this humanity's best hope for survival, should more offensive technology be tested or is this all mostly hype?
Japan Conducts Near-Earth Asteroid Flyby
Above: A re-entry capsule from Japan's Hayabusa2 spacecraft is seen over Australia on Dec. 6, 2020. Image credit: Morgan Sette/Getty Images

The Spin


Narrative A

Hayabusa2's record-breaking flyby of Torifune proves that precise asteroid deflection is within reach — humanity now has real tools to protect Earth. Getting a spacecraft within 800 meters of a fast-moving space rock at 18,000 kilometers per hour is a monumental technical achievement that directly advances planetary defense. Every close-up image and surface data point collected makes future deflection missions more effective and better targeted.

Narrative B

Flybys alone won't cut it when asteroids like Apophis and Bennu keep making close passes with Earth, and deflection still requires years of advance warning that may never come. A fragmentation-based system that can neutralize threats days or even hours out is far more practical than precision maneuvering that demands perfect timing. Planetary defense needs serious funding and a last-line defense strategy, not just impressive photo ops.

Cynical narrative

Hayabusa2's flybys are being sold as civilization-saving breakthroughs when they're mostly long, expensive science expeditions wrapped in planetary-defense marketing. After years of speculation, we may arrive in 2031 only to learn 1998 KY26 is just another rock — or even old space junk. While genuine planet protection is undoubtedly a good thing, these hyped up missions often race far ahead of what they actually deliver.


Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



Go Deeper

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.7.2

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.7.2