Colombia

Colombia Election: Candidates

Is Colombia's future in Cepeda's progressive vision, in Valencia's moderate approach or in de la Espriella's common sense appeal?

MAY 16·Updated MAY 22

Context

Above: A Colombian flag is pictured in Envigado, Antioquia department, on May 13. Image credit: Jaime Saldarriaga/AFP/Getty Images

The Facts

Pool of Candidates: Fourteen presidential tickets will appear on the ballot for Colombia's election on May 31. Each candidate either secured an endorsement from a party, a coalition or citizen signatures in a months-long process that filtered out dozens of candidates from an initial pool of more than a hundred people who had expressed intent to run for Colombia's top office.
El Nuevo Siglo
Las2orillas
Registraduría Colombia
Polls and Prediction Markets: Ahead of the first round, polls suggest a three-way race despite the crowded field, with left-wing Iván Cepeda on track to advance to a June 21 runoff, where he would face either center-right Paloma Valencia or right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella. As of May 16, prediction markets give de la Espriella the highest odds of winning the presidency — 44% on Polymarket and 49% on Kalshi — followed by Cepeda at 42% and 46%, respectively, and Valencia at 16% and 18%.
Agencia de Periodismo Investigativo
AS/COA
Kalshi
Polymarket
Cepeda: Colombia's ruling progressive Pacto Histórico (Historic Pact) coalition presidential nominee, Iván Cepeda, is known for a more conciliatory tone than that of outgoing President Gustavo Petro as well as for representing a progressive base in urban areas. A lawmaker since 2010 — first in the Chamber of Representatives and since 2014 in the Senate — Cepeda has been a staunch critic of former President Álvaro Uribe and has had an active role in peace negotiations with major guerrilla groups.
Breitbart
Colombia Reports
Colombia One
Valencia: The candidate for Uribe's conservative Centro Democrático (Democratic Center), Paloma Valencia, is a close ally and protégé of the party's founder and figurehead. She has served three consecutive four-year terms in the Senate, emerging as one of the leading opposition figures to the Petro administration. Valencia chose centrist economist Juan Daniel Oviedo as her running mate in a bid to broaden the ticket's appeal among urban voters in their 30s and 40s.
The City Paper Bogotá
Colombia Reports
La Silla Vacía
De la Espriella: Running as an independent under his anti-establishment right-wing Defensores de la Patria (Defenders of the Homeland) movement, Abelardo de la Espriella, the well-known, media-savvy criminal defense lawyer who styles himself "El Tigre" (The Tiger), is a political novice. He has cited El Salvador's Nayib Bukele, Argentina's Javier Milei and U.S. President Donald Trump as influences, pledging tough-on-crime and pro-market policies.
Financial Times
Colombia One
Colombia Reports
Other Candidates: Among the remaining presidential hopefuls are former centrist mayors Sergio Fajardo of Medellín and Claudia López of Bogotá, who round out the top five in polls while each polling under 5%, as well as Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of slain presidential pre-candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay. Prediction markets give all of them minimal odds of winning the presidential election.
AS/COA
Registraduría Colombia
TRT World
Kalshi
Polymarket
Semana

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

A seasoned legislator and human rights defender, Iván Cepeda offers continuity without imitation — building on the Petro government's achievements while pledging a sharper fight against systemic corruption. Unlike his rivals, he refuses the politics of hatred and spectacle, running a campaign rooted in conviction over performance. With peace negotiations, institutional reform and social change at the center of his platform, Cepeda is the only candidate with both the experience and the vision to govern.

EL PAÍS English

Narrative B

In an election defined by polarization, Paloma Valencia offers the center a real choice. A three-term senator with a proven legislative record, she's the only candidate capable of defeating the extremes without becoming one. Her pick of centrist economist Juan Daniel Oviedo signals a robust governing coalition. For voters tired of radicalism in both directions, Valencia is where conviction meets electability.

El Colombiano

Narrative C

With the right split, Cepeda wins. De la Espriella is the only candidate energizing the coalition needed to stop him. Valencia's centrist pivot — embodied in her liberal running mate Oviedo — risks alienating the conservative base in a runoff when turnout is everything. Meanwhile, de la Espriella's outsider appeal, anti-establishment edge and tough-on-crime platform are precisely what a fractured right needs to consolidate votes and set Colombia on the proper footing.

The Wall Street Journal