Climate change

Report: Wildfire Smoke to Kill 70,000 Americans Yearly by 2050

Published SEP 19 2025

Story

Above: Smoke from wildfires in Canada covered lower Manhattan and One World Trade Center from the 86th floor of the Empire State Building in New York City, on June 29, 2023. Image credit: Gary Hershorn/Contributor/Getty Images

The Facts

A new study published in Nature suggests that wildfire smoke currently causes more than 41,400 excess deaths annually in the United States, which is more than twice what was previously recognized in other studies and exceeds all traffic crash fatalities in 2024.
Shai Akabas
Stanford University - Doerr School of Sustainability
Nature
The study projects that by 2050, wildfire smoke deaths are projected to increase by 26,500 to 30,000 additional deaths per year as climate change worsens wildfire risks, representing a 64% to 73% increase from current levels.
NBC
Society of Environmental Journalists
The study used three models linking climate change to wildfire activity, smoke dispersion and health outcomes — analyzing all U.S. deaths from 2006-2019 alongside satellite data.
The New York Times
Nature
California is projected to experience the largest increase in smoke-related deaths, with around 4,500 additional fatalities annually by 2050, followed by New York with 1,800 additional deaths under moderate warming scenarios.
The New York Times
Inside Climate News
The economic damages from wildfire smoke deaths could purportedly reach $608 billion annually by 2050, exceeding current estimates of all other climate-driven damages in the U.S. combined, including heat deaths and agricultural losses.
guardian
Bloomberg.com
Very small particles in wildfire smoke can penetrate deep into lungs and enter the bloodstream, causing inflammation that increases risks for asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and pregnancy complications.
The New York Times
NBC

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The Spin

Climate-skeptic narrative

Much of the mainstream media's hyperbole on wildfire risk is deeply rooted in climate alarmism. Even the fine print in U.N. reports suggests that any linkage between alleged climate change and wildfire incidents is shaky at best. Better land management techniques and prescribed burns are the practical ways to address wildfire risk — not alarmist, emissions-slashing agendas.

New York Post

Climate-concerned narrative

These projections represent a climate emergency that demands immediate action on greenhouse gas emissions and wildfire prevention. The Trump administration's proposal to rescind the endangerment finding ignores overwhelming scientific evidence that climate change directly threatens American lives through deadly smoke exposure.

Center for American Progress

NBC