US Intel: Venezuela Not Directing Tren de Aragua Gang

US Intel: Venezuela Not Directing Tren de Aragua Gang
Above: Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro arrives at a meeting with his Russian counterpart at the Kremlin in Moscow on May 7, 2025. Image copyright: Maxim Shemetov/Contributor/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Democratic narrative

Trump’s lie that Maduro runs Tren de Aragua, used to justify deportations under the Alien Enemies Act, has finally been put to bed by this declassified memo. Almost unanimous IC reporting exposes his baseless narrative as a vile pretext to demonize Venezuelan migrants. Thanks to a FOIA request, Trump's sham argument has been brought under decisive scrutiny, proving his deceit can't survive the light of truth.

Republican narrative

Despite one memo, evidence tying Maduro to Tren de Aragua persists. FBI assessments suggest Venezuelan officials facilitate TDA's U.S. migration to destabilize public safety, and the DOJ's terrorism charges against TDA's Jose Enrique Martinez Flores expose this threat. Even without Maduro's link, the Alien Enemies Act is justified — TDA's reign of terror, fueled by open borders, demands swift deportations to protect America.

Metaculus Prediction



Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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