US Economy Contracts 0.3% in Q1

US Economy Contracts 0.3% in Q1
Above: Empty shelves are seen as a man shops for items at a Dollar Tree store on April 28, 2025 in Alhambra, California.  Image copyright:  FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Contributor via Getty Images

The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's reckless tariff crusade has plunged America into economic chaos, sending GDP spiraling downward as panic-buying precedes the inevitable cliff. His posts on Truth Social do little to address growing concerns about the direction of the economy. Once the architect of global prosperity, the U.S. now faces increasing isolation as it grapples with the consequences of its own policy decisions.

Pro-Trump narrative

The modest GDP contraction masks America's underlying economic resilience, with robust consumer spending and fixed investment telling the real story. Trump's bold tariff strategy — far from reckless — represents decisive action to reclaim American industrial might, level the global playing field, and secure long-term prosperity. This temporary market volatility is merely the necessary pains of a stronger, more sustainable economic future.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies



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