Who will win the civil war in Sudan?
MetaculusMAY 28 2024
UN Seeks $6B for Sudan as World's Worst Hunger Crisis Looms
Above: Displaced Sudanese gather near the town of Tawila in North Darfur on Feb. 14, 2025. Image copyright: Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is a collective failure that shames the global community, as it has become the epicenter of the world's largest and most severe hunger crisis ever recorded. Millions are facing starvation while the international community remains largely disengaged.
Narrative B
The military logic of achieving victory continues to overshadow humanitarian concerns. Complex bureaucratic processes and access restrictions severely hamper aid delivery efforts, while limited funding and operational constraints prevent effective assistance to those in desperate need.