UK Net Migration Halves to 431,000 in 2024

UK Net Migration Halves to 431,000 in 2024
Above: U.K. border sign is seen at the arrivals passport control and visa area of London Heathrow Airport in London, England, in December 2024.  Image copyright: Nicolas Economou/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Spin

Left narrative

A post-COVID rise and fall in migration was always likely, so let's not pretend it's the result of tough new policies or that Starmer is tight to try and cut numbers even further. Migrants are a net boost to the economy, public services, and productivity. Rather than pandering to right-wing rhetoric, Labour should champion an immigration system that reflects reality.

Right narrative

A sharp fall in net migration is welcome. But let’s be clear — this is the result of pre-Labour policies, and the real test for Starmer is yet to come. Annual net migration is still around 400,000, a figure the public still sees as too high and remains well above the average of previous decades. Labour has to prove it has a serious, effective plan to reduce numbers and restore long-term control.

Metaculus Prediction



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