Mark Carney is riding an anti-Trump wave. Will that be enough to win Canada’s election? | Erica Ifill
GuardianMAY 1
Canadians Head to the Polls in Federal Election
Above: Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, Conservative leader and Leader of the Official Opposition Pierre Poilievre, and New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh are seen during a campaign stop in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, on April 25, 2025. Image copyright: Artur Widak/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Images
The Spin
Liberal Party narrative
Mark Carney's Liberals are headed for victory, and deservedly so. His economic expertise, honed as Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, instills confidence amid Trump's tariff threats, with polls expressing this reality by significant margins. Poilievre's Conservatives, meanwhile, are lagging due to their inability to pivot post-Trump. Carney's calm leadership and broad appeal, especially among women and older voters, make him the clear choice.
Conservative Party narrative
The Conservatives could still win, as polls may miss a silent majority of young Tory and Bloc Québécois voters, energized by Poilievre's populist appeal. Youth turnout, like 2015's surge, could flip key ridings. Polls have been off before, notably by nine points in Saskatchewan. A Liberal win would be disastrous after a decade of deficits and authoritarianism. Poilievre's authenticity and low-tax vision offer hope, making this election ripe for a Tory upset.