Health

Study: Superbugs Could Cost Global Economy $1.7T by 2050

JUL 21 2025·Updated JUL 22 2025

Story

Above: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteria (gold) interacting with a human neutrophil (red). Image credit: Unsplash

The Facts

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could cause global annual GDP losses of $1.7 trillion by 2050, according to modeling by the Center for Global Development. The U.S. faces $295.7 billion in losses, the EU $187 billion, and the U.K. $58.6 billion.
Cgdev
guardian
Deaths from AMR are expected to increase 60% by 2050, with 1.34 million people in the U.S. and 184,000 in the U.K. predicted to die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections. Meanwhile, global health costs for treating AMR are projected to increase by $176 billion annually.
Cgdev
guardian
In low- and lower-middle-income countries, health care costs could rise to $159 billion under business-as-usual scenarios. If resistance rates increased at the rate of the bottom 15% of countries, AMR health costs would increase to $325 billion, and the global economy would be $1.7 trillion smaller in 2050.
Cgdev
Mathematical models studying AMR transmission primarily focus on high-income regions, such as Europe and North America, where surveillance data are more readily available, despite Sub-Saharan Africa carrying the highest burden of AMR.
Cgdev
BioMed Central
Antibiotic-resistant bacteria were associated with nearly $700 billion in hospital costs globally in 2019, while productivity losses exceeded $193 billion due to excess deaths linked to antibiotic resistance.
BMJ Global Health
Vaccines targeting antibiotic-resistant infections could prevent 30% of hospital costs (around $200 billion) and 40% of productivity losses (almost $80 billion) under hypothetical vaccine scenarios. Vaccines against S. aureus, E. coli, and K. pneumoniae would avert the most hospital costs, totaling $169 billion, and $44 billion in productivity losses globally.
BMJ Global Health

Sources Split

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The Spin

Narrative A

Federal aid cuts are dangerously shortsighted, given that antimicrobial resistance poses a significant threat to global security. The economic modeling shows that every dollar invested in AMR prevention delivers a 28:1 return, making these programs among the most cost-effective interventions available. Cutting international AMR surveillance now virtually guarantees higher resistance rates worldwide, ultimately costing developed nations far more in the long run.

guardian

Observer (NY)

Narrative B

Fiscal responsibility requires tough choices, and domestic priorities must take precedence during challenging economic times. The partnerships and expertise from programs like the Fleming Fund will continue even without direct funding, allowing countries to develop their own surveillance capabilities. Defense spending increases are essential for national security, and the private sector can play a crucial role in filling gaps in global health initiatives.

The Telegraph

Metaculus Prediction

Editor's Note

This story currently has limited coverage. We will continue to monitor all major outlets and update our reporting as additional information becomes available.