Silver Surges Past $60 per Ounce for the First Time

Does silver's rally reflect a genuine supply crisis, or is it driven primarily by Fed rate cuts and technical factors?
Silver Surges Past $60 per Ounce for the First Time
Above: One thousand-gram silver bars at the Istanbul Gold Refinery in Istanbul, Turkey on Aug. 18, 2011. Image credit: Kerem Uzel/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Silver's explosive rise past $60 reflects a genuine supply crisis that markets are only beginning to recognize. Mining capital expenditure has collapsed to decade lows while industrial demand from solar, EVs and semiconductors surges, creating a structural deficit of 820 million ounces since 2021. The silver-to-oil ratio hitting its second-highest level since World War II proves the physical shortage is far more severe than perceived.

Narrative B

Silver's recent surge is driven primarily by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut rather than by any fundamental supply crisis. London inventories have reversed their year-to-date tightening, with free-floating metal reaching 202 million ounces by the end of November. The price spike was amplified by technical factors, including holiday-season illiquidity and trading halts that dried up market depth.

Metaculus Prediction



© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.1

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.1