Russia's aggression — airspace violations in multiple NATO countries and exercises in Belarus mimicking its pre-Ukraine invasion activities — signals intent to escalate beyond Ukraine. Battle-hardened from Ukraine, Putin could invade the Nordic-Baltic region in two to five years, threatening all of Europe. NATO has a narrow window to bolster defenses, meet 5% GDP targets and implement its Rapid Adoption Action Plan, or else it will be caught off guard.
Russia's military exercises aren't aggression; even U.S. President Trump suggested the Polish drone incidents were due to them being disabled, thus sending them off course. Meanwhile, Western sanctions on Russia's oil buyers like India and China could backfire, spiking EU inflation, collapsing trade and fracturing NATO unity. Instead of ramping up for war, the alliance risks self-weakening by alienating key partners and ignoring peace talks.
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