Russia Drives Ukraine Back in Kursk Region, Threatens Encirclement

Russia Drives Ukraine Back in Kursk Region, Threatens Encirclement
Above: A Ukrainian soldier walks towards his artillery position in the direction of Niu York, Ukraine, on 5 March 2025. Image copyright: Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu/Contributor via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

With Russia drastically escalating the intensity of attacks on Kursk, Ukraine will soon have to make difficult decisions on what to do in the region. They can either choose to withdraw and save the experienced fighters they have left or continue attempts to hold onto Kursk at the risk of losing everything.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

While fighting in the Kursk region is difficult, the situation remains under Ukrainian control and its forces are destroying large numbers of enemy forces. Kyiv will be able to maintain its hold on the region.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russian forces are systematically driving Ukrainian troops out of Kursk and the Kremlin is confident that it's only a matter of time before the whole region is cleared.

Metaculus Prediction


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Establishment split

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