Ethiopia: Tigray Rebels Seize Govt Offices in Key Towns

Ethiopia: Tigray Rebels Seize Govt Offices in Key Towns
Above: Getachew Reda and Debretsion Gebremichael at the African Union headquarters on Feb. 16, 2025. Image copyright: Amanuel Sileshi/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

These latest developments in Tigray further suggest that Ethiopia and Eritrea are on the brink of another conflict, especially against the backdrop of a nationwide military mobilization in Eritrea and the deployment of Ethiopian forces to the border. As their proxies fight in Tigray, it's just a matter of time before a war breaks out.

Narrative B

Despite the latest developments in the region, there's no reason to worry about a conflict in Tigray. Disagreements between Tigray's interim administration and the Debretsion faction are political, which means that only dialogue and negotiations, not military force, can lead to a lasting solution.

Metaculus Prediction


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