UK: Plaid Cymru Wins Caerphilly By-Election, Ends Labour's Century Rule

UK: Plaid Cymru Wins Caerphilly By-Election, Ends Labour's Century Rule
Above: Newly-elected Senedd member Lindsay Whittle and Plaid Cymru Rhun ap Iorwerth at Caerphilly Castle on Oct. 24, 2025 in Caerphilly, Wales. Image copyright: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

The Spin

Left narrative

Caerphilly proves progressive politics can defeat the far-right when parties stand firm against Reform's divisive rhetoric instead of appeasing it. Plaid's victory demonstrates that rejecting Reform's anti-immigrant messaging and focusing on community organizing works better than Labour's failed strategy of chasing Reform voters. The left won by mobilizing against hatred and division.

Right narrative

Labour's historic defeat in Caerphilly exposes a party in complete crisis amid Reform's growing momentum. Starmer and Reeves have destroyed Labour's credibility through scandal-ridden governance, broken manifesto pledges on winter fuel payments, and tax hikes that delivered only stagnant growth. Though falling narrowly short this time, Farage and his party have sent a message ahead of May's national polls.

Metaculus Prediction


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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.17.1

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.17.1