Prediction Markets: Mamdani Has Above 90% Chance of Winning NYC Mayor's Race

Prediction Markets: Mamdani Has Above 90% Chance of Winning NYC Mayor's Race
Above: New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani hosts a reverse town hall event in New York on Oct. 17, 2025. Image copyright: Angela Weiss/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Progressive narrative

Mamdani offers New York City an unprecedented opportunity to elect a leader who prioritizes working people over wealthy donors and corporate interests. His proposals resonate with everyday New Yorkers struggling with the city's affordability crisis. The wealth class is panicking because they know Mamdani can't be bought like traditional politicians.

Pro-establishment narrative

Cuomo is the only viable path to stop radical socialist Zohran Mamdani from destroying New York City. Mamdani has zero managerial experience to manage a $120 billion budget and refuses to commit to keeping successful NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch. His agenda would punish hardworking New Yorkers with dangerous policies that prioritize ideology over public safety and fiscal responsibility.

Conservative narrative

Cuomo created today's problems with his far-left policies including bail reform and nursing home disasters, and Sliwa has no obligation to save the Democratic Party from its own socialist mess by dropping out for a disgraced former governor. He is the only true conservative in the race, and the only one who has fought for law and order in the city.

Metaculus Prediction



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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.17.0

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.17.0