M23 Rebels Seize Goma as DRC-Rwanda Tensions Escalate

    M23 Rebels Seize Goma as DRC-Rwanda Tensions Escalate
    Above: A child observes their neighbors evacuating from Kibati due to escalating warfare on Jan. 26, 2025.  Image copyright: Jospin Mwhisha/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    The Congolese government faces an existential threat from Rwanda-backed M23 rebels who have violated territorial sovereignty and caused massive humanitarian displacement. Rwanda's military presence in eastern Congo represents a clear act of aggression that has destabilized the region and led to massive civilian casualties.

    Narrative B

    Rwanda's security concerns are legitimate due to the presence of FDLR militia (former Rwandan Hutu officers) near its border, and the Congolese military's collaboration with these groups poses a direct threat. The conflict stems from long-standing discrimination against Tutsi minorities in eastern Congo that require protection.

    Metaculus Prediction


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