Canada: Liberals Win Quebec Riding by Single Vote in Recount

Canada: Liberals Win Quebec Riding by Single Vote in Recount
Above: Mark Carney, Canada's prime minister, during a news conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on May 2, 2025. Image credit: David Kawai/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

  • A judicial recount in Quebec's Terrebonne riding has resulted in Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste defeating Bloc Québécois incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné by just one vote, with final tallies showing 23,352 votes for Auguste and 23,351 for Sinclair-Desgagné.
  • The victory brings the Liberal Party's seat count to 170 in the House of Commons, just two seats shy of the 172 needed for a majority government, while reducing the Bloc Québécois to 21 seats.
  • The recount added 74 total votes, with Auguste gaining 56 votes and Sinclair-Desgagné gaining 11, while smaller gains were recorded for Conservative and NDP candidates, and the Green Party candidate lost two votes.

Sources Split


The Spin


Narrative A

The Liberal victory in Terrebonne represents a significant breakthrough in traditional Bloc territory and signals growing support for federal unity. The razor-thin margin demonstrates that every vote counts and validates the party's strategy of offering a fresh alternative to separatist politics. This win strengthens the Liberal government's position in dealing with international challenges, particularly regarding U.S. relations.

Narrative B

This recount shows that in spite of the resurgent popularity of the Liberals, there is still a deep divide present in Canadian politics, as this narrow margin suggests. More concerningly, there is a seeming decline in standards at Elections Canada, as this election was rife with technical errors and confusion, which need to be resolved before the next election.


Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.18.3