Israel Strikes Damascus Amid Clashes Between Government Forces and Druze Fighters

Israel Strikes Damascus Amid Clashes Between Government Forces and Druze Fighters
Above: Syrian security forces stand guard on the road leading to the airport, outside the Damascus suburb of Jaramana on April 29, 2025, following overnight sectarian clashes. Image copyright: Rami al Sayed/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Israel's strikes on Damascus represent a violation of Syrian sovereignty and an attempt to exploit sectarian tensions. The new government is working to expel criminal gangs affiliated with the former regime who have attacked civilians and refused to disband or surrender their heavy weapons.

Narrative B

Though Israel is clearly working to escalate sectarian clashes in Syria, the new government has also failed to effectively include the country's minorities in national dialogue and reconciliation. The Assad regime purposefully stoked sectarian tensions, and Syria's new authorities must work toward de-escalation.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has a responsibility to protect the Druze community in Syria due to the deep historical and familial connections they share with Israeli Druze. The military strike was a necessary warning to prevent further attacks on a vulnerable minority group. Israel cannot stand by while extremist groups threaten the Druze population, especially given the new Syrian government's failure to provide adequate protection.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up!
Sign Up Now!