India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate After Kashmir Attack

India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate After Kashmir Attack
Above: Indian paramilitary soldiers patrol along a road in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 29, 2025.  Image copyright: Firdous Nazir/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The Pakistani government is falsely accused of involvement in the Pahalgam attack. India is using this tragedy as a pretext for military aggression against Pakistan, threatening regional stability. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is a dangerous escalation that threatens Pakistan's water security and agricultural livelihood, effectively constituting an act of war. Pakistan has offered a transparent international investigation into the attack which India has rejected.

Narrative B

Pakistan continues to harbor terrorist organizations that launch deadly attacks on Indian soil. The Resistance Front, linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba which has known connections to Pakistan's military and intelligence services, claimed responsibility for this horrific attack. Modi's government must respond firmly to protect Indian citizens from cross-border terrorism that has plagued Kashmir for decades. The Indian public demands action against Pakistan's long history of sponsoring attacks on India.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


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