Ecuador Voters Reject Foreign Military Bases in Referendum

Ecuador Voters Reject Foreign Military Bases in Referendum
Above: Voters in Guayaquil, Ecuador on Nov. 16, 2025. Image credit: Gerardo Menoscal/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Ecuador needs foreign military bases to combat unprecedented drug violence that has made it one of Latin America's most dangerous countries. With 4,619 murders in just the first half of the year and transnational criminal networks controlling key territories, international cooperation through a U.S. military presence at Manta airbase represents the only viable solution to dismantle these sophisticated trafficking operations.

Establishment-critical narrative

Ecuadorians wisely chose national sovereignty over foreign military occupation, rejecting US attempts to establish bases that would serve Washington's regional ambitions rather than Ecuador's security needs. The decisive two-thirds rejection proves citizens understand that real solutions to crime come from domestic efforts, not surrendering territory to foreign powers seeking strategic footholds in Latin America.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures



© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.1

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.1