Early Voting Begins as Australian Prime Minister Holds Slim Lead

Early Voting Begins as Australian Prime Minister Holds Slim Lead
Above:  Voters are seen casting their ballots at a polling center in Melbourne, Victoria State, Australia, on April 22, 2025, during early voting for the 2025 Australian federal election. Image credit: Ye Myo Khant/Contributor/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Early voting for Australia's May 3 federal election commenced on Tuesday, with the Australian Electoral Commission expecting approximately half of the country's 18 million registered voters to cast their ballots before the official polling day.
  • Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor Party currently leads the opposition with a two-party preferred split of 52% to 48%, though campaign activities were temporarily subdued following Pope Francis's death.
  • Labor now commands 35% of the female primary vote compared to the Coalition's 33%, a reversal from March when the Coalition led by 38% to Labor's 29%. However, the portion of those who say gender equality is "very important" dropped from 84.9% in April 2022 to 70.3% this year.

Sources Split


The Spin


Australian Labor Party narrative

Peter Dutton's Liberals are floundering already, trailing Labor in polls due to a campaign devoid of ideas. Their negative, apocalyptic rhetoric fails to resonate, clashing with Australia's reality. Dutton's unpreparedness and reliance on right-wing media echo a Morrison-esque dysfunction, offering no vision beyond criticism. Labor's coherent agenda contrasts sharply, signaling a likely Liberal defeat as voters reject their uninspired bid for power.

Liberal Party narrative

The election is far from over, and Australians still have two weeks to change things. All they need to do is watch Anthony Albanese's repeated lies in the news, the most drastic of which has been his fabricated facts about the Liberals' proposed nuclear facility, using figures drummed up by a pro-Labor group. Australians are not better off today than they were before Albanese's regime took power, but they can return to normalcy by voting him out.


Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies


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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 8.0.0