DRC President Snubs Peace Talks as M23 Rebels Seize Goma

DRC President Snubs Peace Talks as M23 Rebels Seize Goma
Above: Members of the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo who surrendered their weapons and crossed into Rwanda as refugees were seen sitting together in a holding facility in Gisenyi on Jan. 28, 2025. Image copyright: Tony Karumba/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The DRC government faces an existential threat from Rwanda-backed M23 rebels who are attempting to seize control of mineral-rich eastern Congo, with extensive UN evidence showing Rwanda's direct military support and de facto control over M23 operations. This constitutes a clear violation of the DRC's sovereignty.

Narrative B

Rwanda's military involvement aims to protect its borders and Tutsi populations from armed groups in eastern DRC, particularly the forces created by former perpetrators of the 1994 Rwandan genocide while supporting legitimate grievances of the region's minority Tutsi population through M23.

Metaculus Prediction

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