Guerrilla Violence Triggers Displacement Crisis in Colombia

Guerrilla Violence Triggers Displacement Crisis in Colombia
Above: Displaced people from recent clashes between armed leftist groups queue to receive donations at General Santander Stadium in Cúcuta, Norte de Santander province, Colombia, on Jan. 21, 2025. Image copyright: Yeison Picon/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin


Pro-establishment narrative

A former guerrilla himself, Petro won the presidency with a bold plan to finally bring the decades-old internal conflict in Colombia to an end, but his so-called "total peace" has failed. Cease-fires with armed groups allowed them to expand as the government opted not to apply military pressure on them, and Colombia is now on the brink of another escalation.


Establishment-critical narrative

The so-called total peace never intended to achieve lasting peace in Colombia and tackle the root causes of conflict, as Bogotá has relied on dialogue to cause internal divisions within and among insurgent groups and de-politicize them. It's no surprise that this plan is actually doing more harm than good to local communities.


Metaculus Prediction


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