Ceasefire Remains Elusive After Third Round of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations

Ceasefire Remains Elusive After Third Round of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations
Above: Delegations from Ukraine (L), Russia (R) and Turkey (C) attend the third round of talks in Istanbul on July 23. Image copyright: Ozan Kose/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

At negotiations, Ukraine clearly outlined its priorities, beginning with a demand for a full ceasefire and a full cessation of strikes on civilian infrastructure. By failing to accept this, or a leaders' meeting, Russia continues to demonstrate it's not ready to end the war. However, it's not too late to change track and bring this madness to an end.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia and Ukraine discussed their respective memoranda for peace and while the countries remain far apart, Russia hopes this work continues, including with the formation of working groups to resolve these disputes more efficiently. That's why it's not appropriate for leaders to negotiate these issues from scratch. Russia continues to work with Ukraine on humanitarian issues, though it has not fulfilled some of its obligations.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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