Study: 75% of US Adults Obese Under New Waist-Based Criteria
The Facts
- In a study published Monday in JAMA Network Open, researchers from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard University, Yale University and Yale New Haven Health examined obesity prevalence using revised criteria that incorporate waist-based measurements alongside Body Mass Index (BMI).
- The study analyzed data from more than 14,000 participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2017 and 2023 — approximately 237.7 million U.S. adults — and found that 75.2% met criteria for obesity under the new definition.
- The study found that nearly four in 10 adults with a normal BMI were found to have excess body fat when waist-based measures were applied, and obesity prevalence increased sharply with age and was higher among Hispanic adults.
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The Spin
Narrative A
BMI is the standard measure for determining obesity. Yet, the waist-to-height ratio reveals the true scope of America's metabolic crisis that BMI measurements miss entirely. When the waist exceeds half the height, the risk of insulin resistance, fatty liver, and heart disease skyrockets, regardless of weight. Expanding obesity criteria to include body fat distribution identifies 75% of adults facing real health dangers.
Narrative B
Obesity diagnosis has become a mess because BMI was never meant to diagnose disease, and it can't tell who's actually sick. Relying on this flawed metric creates millions of misdiagnoses, labeling healthy muscular people as diseased while missing thin people with dangerous organ fat who desperately need treatment. Medicine must finally define what obesity illness actually is beyond just body size.
Metaculus Prediction
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