Trump Sees Record Win in Iowa Caucus

Trump Sees Record Win in Iowa Caucus
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The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

While the first half of 2023 suggested a tight race in Iowa, an exceptionally strong campaign by Trump and his team has resulted in a historic and record-breaking result for the state. As the DeSantis and Haley campaigns continue to flounder, the former president has stayed away from the GOP's string of pointless debates while maintaining a strong and simple message. Trump has dodged every possible Democrat bullet and continues to gather momentum as he eyes a return to the White House.

Anti-Trump narrative

Despite being a state known for its religious affiliations, it is the cult of Trumpism that dangerously threatens US democracy following Iowa's caucus results. As history has shown, however, this outcome — while undoubtedly a victory for Trump — doesn't mean he'll secure the presidential nomination. Faced with a trove of criminal charges and stiff competition from Haley in New Hampshire's primary, the US hasn't yet fallen for Trump's brand of authoritarianism.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

More neutral establishment stance articles

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